Here is the sad story of a reg who thought splitting his range would be a good idea.
PokerStars - 20/40 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
BB: 15.2 BB
Hero (SB): 22.3 BB
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♥ Q♥
Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB
Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) K♦ T♠ T♦
BB bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB
Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) 9♦
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (9 BB, 2 players) A♠
BB bets 10.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 10.7 BB
BB shows 4♣ 2♦ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 33%, Flop 27%, Turn 35%)
Hero shows 7♥ Q♥ (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 67%, Flop 73%, Turn 65%)
Hero wins 30.4 BB
I thought a lot about this hand. It seems to be played really bad lol.
I had really good reads for making this play, but my problem was if this particular hand is good enough to do it. Because the 7 is a little bit weird, blocking some 7x bluffs, and I don't have a blocker to the flush, which would diminish his only plausible value range here (flushes) by 20% making my call even more profitable.
So the plausible value range consists of a few small suited combos (although I'm a bit in doubt about that because most regs usually don't Iso bluff them, cause folding them still sucks a bit, but it's still a possibility I need to account for) . But why do I believe that his range is deprived of all the high cards and stuff? Exactly because of the aforementioned range splitting, which after further analysis, and thanks to some work in Pio Solver as well, I think enables me to bluffcatch in this particular spot with 100% of my range without any real worries lol. How crazy is that.
Anyways, It's no big deal really and it doesn't matter too much. This is a very particular case (I had very exact notes, which rarely happens, and it's rare to find regs that are so unbalanced anyways). But hey, still fun to have one of these in like 10k spins ♦
What do you think? Anyone fishy and ballsy enough to make the call for 120$ or no?