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[SH] A8s BUvsCO On river im dead Have i enough fold equity on river?

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filip212
Joined: 30.05.2010

I have hand which i first posted in tilt to my blog:
https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=2856936#post2856936

Now i analyze my session and it looks this move can be profitabile if our villain folds enogh hands in his range. I think we are on river dead and we have 0% equityy vs his range and we can give up or bluff. In tilt i thinked i have enough Fold equity and i do all-in.
Reality is i dont know how many hands can he fold here.
My analyze is:
His range on river:
AA,77,ATs+,A7s,A5s-A2s,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Qd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,Ad8d,Qd8d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,8d6d,7d6d,7d5d,6d5d,6d4d,5d4d,ATo+
it contains 62 combos
His calling range of my all-in
AA,77,A7s,A5s-A3s,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Qd9d,Jd9d,Td9d,Ad8d,Qd8d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,8d6d,7d6d,7d5d,6d5d,6d4d,5d4d
contains only 28 combos
BUT
28 times i will lost 109BB = - 3052BB
and 36x i will won 58,5BB = + 2106 BB
Net Adjusted = - 946BB

Next alternative:
If his calling range will be:
AhAs, 7h7s, 7h7c, 7s7c, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Ah7h, As7s, Ah5h, As5s, As4s, Ah3h, As3s
Contains 18 combos = 18 * 109 = - 1962
and 44 * 58,5 = 2574
Net Adjusted 612
Where will be reality? Can he call here Jx flushes to my shove? I can have better flush than he and he must sometimes fold flushes which are not enough strenght here...
Looks better on this hand and please dont open spoiler before judge:
PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 149 BB
SB: 157.5 BB (VPIP: 23.20, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.87, Hands: 125)
BB: 64.5 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
UTG: 113.5 BB (VPIP: 20.42, PFR: 15.92, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 686)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
CO: 109 BB (VPIP: 17.01, PFR: 13.61, 3Bet Preflop: 5.77, Hands: 151)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ 8♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 7♦ 3♣ A♦
CO bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 4♥
CO bets 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

River: (42.5 BB, 2 players) 2♦
CO bets 16 BB, Hero raises to 128.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 72.5 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows A♣ 8♣ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 71%, Flop 64%, Turn 80%)
CO shows Q♦ 8♦ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 29%, Flop 36%, Turn 20%)
CO wins 212 BB


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1 reply
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think you might be right that you are dead. Only weaker Ax hand is A6. Even though his bet sizes go smaller and smaller, his 3 barrel looks quite strong. Would he really go for thin value with some pocket pairs like 88-KK when there is an A on the board, flush completes and any 5 makes a straight.

If you shove here you must make him fold 60% of his range. I think it could be close, but then again at NL2 these guys like to be a bit sticky and call loose. So a smaller variance play might be just to fold. Or call, you need to win just 22% of the time and it is still possible he bets with something stupid.


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