Hey Guys!
I did some PIO for this hand so I just decided to share my analysis. I might be slightly loose with the preflop analysis here since I'm use to play with antes, but assuming we have opponent who is open raising around 50% of BU, I assume our 3bet range looks something like this?
Assuming we play against decent regular he's probably calling our 3bets with something like this?
In this specific flop we have range advantage against our opponent (around 55% for us, 45% for him). In flop I decided to first run it with 3 possible betsizings (25%, 40%, 60%) to see what PIO prefers.
Since it wasn't too clear I decided to try 25%, 60% to choose whether bet big or small.
Since splitting your strategy for various betsizes is quite complicated, I try often found sizing where we can bet for highest frequenzy... In this case I would prefer 25 - 33% pot since our solution looks close to 100% cbet.
Where as if solution for 60% cbet (used as 1 sizing strategy) seems more complicated.
We can as well look for our opponents counter strategies to define which sizings we would prefer to use (use nodelocking if necessary). This would be range for our opponent against 60% cbet.
And if we would decide to cbet with 100% frequenzy the maximal exploitable strategy threw nodelocking would look like this.
And to compare it 30% sizing this would be our opponents best strategy if we decide to use that sizing.
And once we realize that our strategy and our opponents chosen approach defines the turn play as well we can compare "the optimal solutions". When betting 30% of the pot and opponent calling most his range the equitys to turn is us having 51%, our opponent 49%. When hand is played like this PIO prefers to check around 50%, and bet 60%, 80% of the pot with high frequenzy.
When we betting 60% of the pot with 100% frequenzy our opponent calls us with tighter range resulting 46% equity and 54% for him in the turn. This leads to PIO preferring more checking and smaller 40%, 60% bets in the turn with higher frequenzy than before.
This might seem highly advantaged stuff, but actually when you start thinking like this it start to be come more and more "obvious". Very often simple question like "should I bet or check here" should be consired "If I bet what sizing should I use" and after that think "what is my range" "what is my opponents" range. Based on that you can understand better which flops you should bet as high frequency and which flops you should check as high frequency (obviously this opponent dependend as well). After that you can try to define what is good turn card for you and what is good card for your opponent and how that effects for your strategy.
This is settings I use for tree building in case someone wants to look for mistakes. I tried flop IP sizings with 25, 40, 60 80%, but PIO seems to prefer higher betsizes and lower betting frequenzy so I stick with 60% and 80%.
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EDIT: Now I see it's SB raising (lol)... Well I made it based on we play BB v BU.
