I hate this dealer!

You have a bit more than 5$ effectively left OTR so I guess the needed equity is around 30%.
Without info, villain looks like a reg. I think regs could use this line as a bluff even less often than fish. Weaker value hands do not probably play like that so this is either the nuts or total air. And I think this probably is the nuts too often. So, I think the fold was ok.

Agree with la55i.
Only one thing I would do differently is the turn bet size. I think thats a good spot to make pot size bet on turn to get max value from one diamond pairs like QQ or to make villain fold an get the money with no risk (depends how good is the villain)

Betting bigger turn would be suicidal (and hoping to value QQ here is so marginal it's even weird to mention it), I'm not even sure we have to bet here in fact as we won't like getting raised.
River easy fold. Needing 60 seconds to fold this is having a mental problem (it's not an insult, players need to work on their mental game too).

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
Betting bigger turn would be suicidal (and hoping to value QQ here is so marginal it's even weird to mention it), I'm not even sure we have to bet here in fact as we won't like getting raised.

Can I ask you what range do you think the UTG is opening and calling to 12BB 3bet OOP?
To make a profitable bet you need >50% equity right?
What combos of that range are ahead on turn to make yourself saying that betting big is bad? Even if you get raised and have to go all in on turn. What persentage is it?

The thing is when he's not ahead he is not calling and you end up value cutting yourself hard against mostly flushes.
The guy is 500BB deep so it's not crazy to assume he knows a little what he's doing and can understand how strong you are representing when you're cbetting this flop in a squeezed pot so QQ isn't the best call. I'd even prefer calling with Tx combos which have as much SDV (unless you're recklessy betting JJ) and can make DP/sets and are blocking some sets at least.

At micros, Axx boards (moreover in 3bet pots) and boards where a flush is possible are the two first things people understand. They are even probably overestimating these effects and overfolding lol. So no need to bet so thin when you're far from your top range. If you get raised turn it's so often a flush it's painful to call even with our full outs. I just don't see what you are hoping to accomplish here and how light you are hoping for villain to get.

Edit : oh my bad it's an HU spot, MP has folded pre I had wrongly read sorry. I like it already better then but still no need to bet bigger as it doesn't accomplish much and exposes you even more to an all-in raise.

The thing is when he's not ahead he is not calling and you end up value cutting yourself hard against mostly flushes.

I will try to answer to my question myself

Preflop: if the villain is good regular, I think he can call to 3 bet from UTG OOP with: 66+; ATs+; KJs+; 9Ts+; AQo+ TOTAL- 89 combos (exluding the ones I am blocking with AA) I have made that call a bit wider cause we are 166BB deep.

Flop: he can have a call to cbet with: 3 combos AKo; 3 combos AQo; 3 combos 88 sets; 3 combos TT sets; 12 combos of flush/straight draw KQs, KJs, QJs; 18 combos 2nd pair hands JJ-KK, 1 combo each (4 combos) AK, AQ, AJ, AT of hearts. TOTAL: 46 combinations, and we have 90% equity against that range and even every combo itself is behind our AA set!

FLOP equity

Turn: he can still call/raise with all 4 combos AK; 1 combo AQ with Q diamond; 1 combo AT of hearts; 9 combos (KK, QQ, JJ) with one diamond; 3 combos TT sets; 3 combos 88 sets and 3 combos that have a flush and are ahead. TOTAL: 24 combos and only 3 are ahead! Lets say villain is folding more to your turn bet so you can take off some marginal combos but still at 5NL there is no chance people let it go any set here, two top pair, one diamond K, Q hand so however we have a minimum of 20 combos that still want to go to the river and only 3 of them are ahead!

TURN equity

All I would do I would try to get more money to the pot on turn and go all in on turn if being raised. And even if I am against these 3 combos which is about 15%, I still can hit my full house with around 20% equity

That is only my oppinion and the way how I am thinking

I hope I did not any mistakes in my calculations

Yeah you have a turn bet versus one player (earlier I thought it was a 3-way pot flop), even if I don't know if he'll call that light. No need to bet bigger though.
Aside from putting yourself on a difficult spot on bad river cards, betting bigger screams value and if you make a full on a good river he may get away.

I think you just lose the value thinking that way On turn you have 80% equity against the villains range, thats the same number when you are AA vs TT preflop, do you just call or check preflop with AA because you dont want to put yourself into a difficult spot?

Lol I wish poker was that simple ♦
Equity range versus range doesn't work as simply as equity hand versus hand, like, not even close. You are so oversimplifying it dude. I can't even begin to explain the differences, talking about the distinction between raw equity and equity distribution, between equity and expected value, robustness of calling range equity, range advantage etc...

I am not a master, I only play 10NL with a profit so far.. I understand I have lots of things to learn to move forward. what limits you think I will stop at if thinking that simple way?

P.S. What limits do you play?

I'm just saying you can't compare with a preflop situation. And if you want to keep your analogy, it'd rather be to say that when you do have AA vs TT pre, you don't alter your sizing because you have AA (as opposed to KK or AK) and people at NL5 are stupid, no you open/reraise with the same sizing for your whole range.

Nevermind what stake I'm playing, it's a democratic forum where if we're right we should be able to explain it and not hammer our opinion with our stake or winrate, I've always hated people doing it and I've swore to myself I'd never become like that

Peace & Love. Forums are made to share and help each other to improve.
There is plenty ways to play a hand and plenty lines to follow.
@headshot2009 You posted your hand to get others opinion so it doesn't cost much to listen to it. Then advise by yourself to agree or not agree to follow or not follow them. But well i don't see the point of posting a hand asking others opinion if you don't really want to know what others might do or think in the same situation. Also since i'm not a CG player i won't bother talking about that hand.Keep On the Good Winrate ...

Best of Skills & Luck @ Tables,
OldSchoolPapa.

It is up to you mate, I only want to know how far I can go with my logic

Anyway, if you know your oponent after turn card have 15% of combinations that beat you and the rest 85% you are beating, would you put all your money in on turn if 50% of all his combos would do the same? You have 60BB in the pot and 130BB left behind.

If you think NL5 reg would fold to a pot size bet the set or top pair hand with nut flush draw or 2nd pair KK with nut flush, or two top pairs on turn, because there are 3 diamonds on board, - do not answer to my question.

Sorry for being pain, I just want to understand your logic

I don't think there is a specific logic at micros and another one at small stakes etc, I'd on the contrary argue that even at NL10 you could benefit from thinking more deeply.

The thing is you can't just compare in a vacuum 2 sizings assuming you'll get called by the exact same range without any impact whatsoever on the river play on any run out etc...
You do have value turn but anyway you'll be able to shove river even without betting bigger there and it's the more important in my opinion.

It's possible a bigger sizing would be better, depending on several factors to consider. I can totally imagine a big sizing working with a mix of flushes and semi-bluffs (and I suppose a solver would support that but who knows without running the sim) but with a top set that so heavily blocks TP and DP I'm more enclined to imagine it in the medium sizing split. There should be numerous holdings in his range that'll have a tougher decision against a not too big sizing.

I think the point here is that your equity doesn't mean how much money you will win. If you force villain to fold most of his holdings with a big bet size, but you would get a call with a smaller one and then maybe get the stacks in OTR when villain feels priced in, then you could be making more money with a smaller bet OTT.

There should be numerous holdings in his range that'll have a tougher decision against a not too big sizing.

Can you write down all that combos?

Lets use his range what I put in my previous comment if you agree with it.

@OldSchoolPapa
Sorry guys if I am too entuziastic here, I only want to undetstand the arguments of the oppinions. Thats how we analize the hands dont we? As more arguments behind your oppinion you say the better quallity of the forum will be.
Peace

The guy has QQ,TT and maybe some AK that are left. 88 he might not call pre, ATs either. KJs and QJs he should fold. So his range is quite tight.

TT he calls vs a big bet OTT. The rest of his hands will have more trouble calling the bigger you bet.

Originally posted by la55i
I think the point here is that your equity doesn't mean how much money you will win. If you force villain to fold most of his holdings with a big bet size, but you would get a call with a smaller one and then maybe get the stacks in OTR when villain feels priced in, then you could be making more money with a smaller bet OTT.

Could write down in your oppinion what combos he would call to 2/3 pot size on turn but would fold to the pot size bet please?

Lets say he will go to the turn with:

"3 combos AKo; 3 combos AQo; 3 combos 88 sets; 3 combos TT sets; 12 combos of flush/straight draw KQs, KJs, QJs; 18 combos 2nd pair hands JJ-KK, 1 combo each (4 combos) AK, AQ, AJ, AT of hearts. TOTAL: 46 combinations"

Let's first say he folds or 4bets AQo mostly so he wouldn't have all 3 combos, let's say he has just 1. Let's also say 88 could be a fold and take only 1 or 2 combos. Let's also say he folds KJs and QJs pre. Only one KQs combo has a flush draw, the rest are gonna fold their gutshots probably already OTF. He could also fold ATs AJs pre.
Total combos, way less than 46.

If you bet pot he will probably call the sets (mostly TT if 88 folded pre and or raises the flop often), AKhh might find another call too. But the rest of his range, maybe some AQ hands,QQ and rarely some KK hands would have trouble. Your range is strong and you play this in a strong way. With QQ and KK he would be playing just his flush draw because the probability you have an A is very high. With Qd he also has some reverse implieds because you can have Kd. He probably shouldn't call a pot size bet.