FR/AQ vs limp

Originally posted by MotorcycleBoy25
I have no info about my villain, but I think, that he is a weak player and has a lot of SC in his range. I think, that I have easy calls on flop and turn. What do you do on this river?

Still a call.
Not so easy though, to be sure, but this is a superb spot for him to bluff.

It is a question of guts vs math.
Math says its a fold. Guts say it is a superb spot for opponent to bluff.
(or vice-versa)

Raise the flop! You have TPTK againt a limping fish, who donks half pot. 90% of the cases it will be a pair (mainly TP, but AT can play this too) or some kind of mid strong draw (FD, OESD this time). You want to build the pot on the flop/turn againts these holdings. If he donk/push on the flop most likely you can fold. (That is the 10% when they have Two Pair+ here. Yes sometimes you will be bluffed out with multidraws, but it general fish do not play aggrively with draws.)

Played this way, first I said this is a crying call on the river. I have put it into equliab and it seems to be a crying call as well with 33.33% equity. I have put all twopairs, sets (99,TT), KJ straights and flushes into his range:

hu.pokerstrategy.com
Asztal: QcTh9c3sAc
Equity Win Split
MP2 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { AdQd }
MP3 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { TT-99, QTs-Q9s, T9s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Jc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, 5c4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, ATo, KJo, QTo }

We can argue about some combinations in has range, but It is a close call, many things would depend on his tendencies on the river. For example if we cannot asume he bets two pairs, we have an instant fold. In general I cannot give any pure bluff combinations to his hand as everything has some kind of SD value.

I have moved your hand to our hand discussion forum. There fits it better.

Cheers,
SDK1987