3 bet pot utg vs mp river overbet vs unknown whale type

Hmm interesting hand. I think your estimation of who the villain is is the most important part of the puzzle here. Back the day, they used to say that if you don’t know who the fish is in the first 15 minutes of play, than you are the fish. Well, now it’s down to 5 hands LOL. You have to make a judgement whether you think he’s a aggro fish or a reg who had a good run of cards, otherwise you are just guessing in the dark.

If he’s a reg, than you def want to just call. No 4betting with JJ this deep, maybe 10-20% for deception. If he’s a fish with anywhere close to 45% 3bet, you have the nuts and not 4betting is a huge mistake.

As played, I would call the river. You are at the top of your range, JJ is a very strong hand. There’s a good chance he’s just messing around. Also what exactly is he repping. Tx bets flop this deep all the time I assume. Does he get to the river with KK/AA this way and overbets them? Idk, maybe... but very suspicious line.

Originally posted by MP348
Hero? I am ever folding here?

Should i be donking on the turn?

When opponent doesn't bet OTF, leading the Turn is acceptable -- but you can't just plan that one street.
You need to decide before you bet the turn, whether it is bet/call or bet/fold, and if you bet the turn and opponent flats, what's your plan for the river?

After the flop went x/x the first thing I considered was a donk turn, followed by a another block value bet for the river and fold to aggression. I changed it quickly to x/c mode on turn and then decide river depending on the sizing. The overbet felt to suspect given the missed cbet on the flop. It felt off to me, the timing, sizing and no prior history prompted my decision.

I decided to tank and x/f river. I hope i saved a few dollars and didn't make an exploitable fold.

obviously lead turn - check turn is really bad

he may occasionally have overpair being slowplayed (cos he's scared of trips) but if he's any good, he will recognize that in MP 3bet vs UTG, you hardly have any TX hands in your range. So this means that he's largely weighted towards AK-highs, which you should definitely bet against because he's not pot controlling

As played you should def call down, this is at the top of your range. Unless you have an exploitative read that he will play overpairs in this manner.

@mblm
After we bet turn, what do we do on river? Bet 1/2 on Tx and lower, x/c on Q and x/f on A and K?
Do we treat him here on this small sample as unknown reg or some fishreg?

I am a fan of leading the turn, could bet between 1/3 to 1/2. If he raises fold, if he calls then on river I lead again for 2/3 pot+. He may call with AA- QQ but at that point he is on the defensive trying to decide what to do, unless he has a 10. Which him 3 betting he either made quads of a10suited, maybe 109suited maybe j10 suited dependent on villain, but as you said you didn’t have much information.

anyone considering 4 bet pre , its 6 max ..

Think without know MP3bet frequency, and he is 3 betting UTG who has a pretty tight opening range he is probably maybe 3 betting top 5%. I personally like a 4bet bluff with AQ off suit as you have pretty good blockers.

I think you need to lead on turn. As you played, I think he may be bluffing AK, AQ there, based on the stats, but 25 hands is nothing... I think you are good, 4betting pre is ok IMO, and the way it played out I would call, I think he is bluffing you with high broadways, considering he is a LAG (not enough hands tho!).

I am not a good cash game player tbh, but I feel villain bluffs on you a lot there with high aces...