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Middle pair on Kh flop

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jiffybag
Joined: 21.12.2010

This was from my first session of the month where I decided to take a stab a NL50. It did not go my way, anyways, I don't have much notes on villain other than he is passive and a calling station and I have seen him call off with AKs pre facing 2 all ins ahead of him.
I can't remember what I was thinking at the time as I was titled by the time this hand happened, after watching the footage back I should have folded this hand vs him on the BTN as he was just playing way to many hands and not folding enough on the flop if I missed, and he isn't aggro or bluffy enough for me to call him down if he does start bombing the flop.
I am thinking he has 9x here or maybe 22 - 88, AQ, AJ, A9, Q9, J9, 97, 96, he could also have a better T. I don't know if he bets his gut shots.
Could I have lead the river? Or is that not a good idea? Do you guys raise this vs this type of player?

NL 50 4 handed

Hero CO $51
Villain BTN $48.48
SB $107.87
BB 19.60

Hero T♦: 8♦:

Hero raises $1.25, BTN calls, fold, fold

(Pot $3.25)

Flop
9♣: K♦: T♥:

Hero checks, BTN bets $1.62, Hero calls

(Pot $6.49)

Turn
5♣:

Hero checks, BTN bets $1.62, hero calls

(Pot $9.73)

River
8♥:

Hero???


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4 replies
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

River doesnt change the board really so I would not have donk bet range in general. So check and see what villain bet. If he bets small you can go for value raise.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Untill the river pretty standard I think. I would just check to the aggressor. You have 2 pair, but board is wet. Any Q has a straight now and you eat only a bluff or over played top pair hand. I don't think a check raise will be to profitable against him/her.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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mkBISCUIT
Joined: 19.01.2018

with villains range in BTN, he is holding all QJ, but then with villain float betting both flop and turn at 30% and < on the turn.. It kind of a weird line for villain to take, he is depolarizing his range on the turn IMO... To maybe a K bad kicker <9... I think i would just check call/bet.. maybe lose some value not raising if villain bets small on river, but I dont see this line much that i can remember..

GL. KEEP GRINDING


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Hello jiffybag!

Preflop
I mean that's an interesting questions. The hand is profitable as default. I would be careful for you not to overvalue singular hands that went to showdown when you change your defaul gameplan - calling off AKs isn't exactly bat**** crazy :P

I'd consider the blinds behind you - if they aren't squeeze happy it's perfectly fine to open the hand and not change usual ranges.

River
Hey I get it, I really do - he is too loose and passive, seems like he is going to check back a LOT - it's a nice bet for value, n'est-ce pas, pardon my French for some reason. I actually went commando and see if solver could approve. My hard disk is being a diva so I made this from scratch, with just one size options

The Solver doesn't like leads here even at puny sizes

Spoiler


Why that is? Well basicaly on the flop we just bet most of our strong stuff and are now somewhat capped
This is flop bet strategy

Spoiler


River nodelock
Ah what the hell, I nodelocked, removed most bluffs
chopped up villain's River buff range

Spoiler

And wouldn't you know it THE SOLVER DOES START TO LEAD HERE
to 18% size

River pro lead with arbitrary commando sim

Spoiler


Conclusion

  • His ranges will be way wider than what I used - but you need to be careful not to extrapolate too hard from small samples - the info you gave was vague to say the least
  • If you wonder why no T♦:8♦: on the River it's because it folds it vs the turn bet, calls T♠:8♠A♠ it unblocks some backdoor bluff hands from either street.
  • River lead isn't terrible or anything - pretty far fetched and unnecessary, but vs small lead he is SUPPOSED TO RAISE 44.5% of the time and if you are right about your reads he shouldn't bluff that often - and if he won't maybe you can even size up a bit as he can call much wider than solver with a wider range

So I mean yeah - unnecessary to lead here unless you really can
- Confidently cap his range because of turn size
- Really assume he is passive and won't bluff enough, both in betting when checked to and raising when you do donk
=> I can see leading here with some extensive reads vs someone very face up ish in a very specific situation
=> I spent way more time trying to science out a way where we can lead in this spot, and 99% most likely so did you. This turn sizing is very unusual and you might take months before you face this line again.

Fun though


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