AA in MP vs BTN in single-raised pot on double-paired board.

I don't see much value in betting the river. Only a over pair could be in villains calling range. I expect if you check you give villain the change to bluff with ace high or a missed draw and you don't get in a spot you need to fold if villain raised on your bet on the river.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Can I ask is that a standard MP PFR on these stakes?

For the river I agree with SDK that you can't bet for value here. So I would consider a check/call as the best play. As you said yourself many hands in BTN range that have you beat at this point unless he was floating with some kind of draw.

Fun fact, the solver checks OTF 100% range, even AA. The reason is that the BTN calling range is stronger than the MP opening range, and in game theory it is irrelevant who the aggressor is. Making decision based on who the aggressor is, is really just a way to determine which player has the stronger range. It works in most situations, but here it is actually misleading.

That being said, I would bet bet bet here (because population is overcalling) and fold to a raise. OTR you can get value from QQ-77 which would check behind otherwise, and I doubt if Villain will turn his few busted flush draws into a bluff.

Originally posted by monteCarlol
That being said, I would bet bet bet here (because population is overcalling) and fold to a raise. OTR you can get value from QQ-77 which would check behind otherwise, and I doubt if Villain will turn his few busted flush draws into a bluff.

Well I did bet, bet, bet and opponent went call, call, tank call and showed down pocket jacks.

He (I assume) proceeded to call me all kinds of stupid.
I replied with — 'Hey, I'm not the one who called a pot-sized bet with JJ on that board'

Fun fact, the solver checks OTF 100% range, even AA. The reason is that the BTN calling range is stronger than the MP opening range, and in game theory it is irrelevant who the aggressor is.

This is interesting. I'm looking at raising vs calling charts now and the BTN is stronger, I never noticed it in this way before. I've always assumed that the BTNs range would be weaker vs earlier open since you have position and can call wider. Range aside, the only strength I assign the BTN is position, if that makes sense.
I've just realized a horrible truth, I'm still a I would still find it hard to not bet here you know?

Board: 4♥6♦5♥ 6♠ 5♦
Pos Equity Range
MP 43.96% { 22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ }
BU 56.04% { JJ-55,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo,KQo }
Powered by Equiweb - 6 Max Hold'em Equity Simulations

Yeah, I get that, but if I'm checking AA, and opponent is checking 100% we end up bluff catching for a small pot — and bluff-catching is exactly what he did.
I suppose that this means I turned AA into a bluff in that spot

I like checking flop as it keeps your range uncapped, and he also has nut advantage at that moment as you hold zero of those PP pre- maybe 6’s maybe.

Then if he check turn time I am betting same with river and 2/3 -pot and if I get raised folding.