JJ 3BP OOP vs river shove

Seems like a pretty aggressive villian. Second barrel OTT wont be a mistake but you might want to slowdown with some frequency. All of his floats miss so give him a chance to bluff. As played i am calling OTR

71 hands is not enough to be accurate, but already shows some villain tendencies.
30/27 shows a villain that likes to raise to enter a pot. Villains with this stats usually have some positional awareness, raising wide from BTN, but usually fold non-suited connectors, non suited A2 to AT and some suited connectors to 3bet.
PF:
I think his raise range will be close to this: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K6o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+
His 3bet call range would be close to this: JJ-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo

Flop:
I'd place him on this range: JJ-55,AQs-ATs,A5s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AQo-ATo

Turn:
After calling the flop, I think the 3 is a brick, so the range is kept, maybe folding some Ax: JJ-55,ATs,A5s,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AsQs,AsJs,ATo

Now, the river, I like to block bet. When you don't you have no idea where you stand.
The A is a nasty card, as you're now only 52% favorite to win the hand, while you were 80% on the turn.
IF you consider he would shove his entire range, you're only 52%, the same odds you are getting for the pot. Soon as you remove any bluff hand from his range, you stop having odds to call him-> fold and live to fight another day.

Board: T♦5♠5♣ 3♠ A♥
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     47.79%  47.06%   0.74% { JJ-55, AQs-ATs, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo }
BB     52.21%  51.47%   0.74% { JdJc }

P.S. Curiosity. I played a little longer with this hand and:

1- If we remove AQo/AJo from villain range. I don't think he should be calling 2 barrels with that:

Board: T♦5♠5♣ 3♠ A♥
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     34.26%  33.33%   0.93% { JJ-55, AQs-ATs, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo }
BB     65.74%  64.81%   0.93% { JdJc }

2- I think the frequency for villain to have AQo/AJo on that river, would be close to his freqeuncy of shoving his 66-99 pairs:

Board: T♦5♠5♣ 3♠ A♥
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     61.67%  60.00%   1.67% { JJ-TT, 55, AQs-ATs, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo }
BB     38.33%  36.67%   1.67% { JdJc }

The above balances each other enough to consider 50% (52% on my original analysis) your equity against villain's widest range.

Nice hand for discussion. Ty for bringing it up.

I am not sure; I may be calling... The only 2 hands that scare me are A5 and A10, but there is a possibility that he defends with K5 suited but I dont think it is high.. I am in the call side of this unless you know villain.

Read less this is a tough spot on the river, but I would go for a 1/3 bet for thin value and fold to a shove.

Now I need good reads to consider calling a over bet shove.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I think his raise range will be close to this: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J6s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A2o+,K6o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+
His 3bet call range would be close to this: JJ-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo

This is what I was thinking, but I go as low as including 76s and 65s and maybe I should have included 54s.

Now, the river, I like to block bet. When you don't you have no idea where you stand.

I am always forgetting to do this And I didn't have any idea where I was in the hand at that point only that it didn't make a lot of sense. If I bet something like 50c am I not priced in now to call?

IF you consider he would shove his entire range, you're only 52%, the same odds you are getting for the pot. Soon as you remove any bluff hand from his range, you stop having odds to call him-> fold and live to fight another day.

Villain should have more hands that has showdown and checks back that river I think. My hand looks like a T now when I check.

Originally posted by jiffybag
I am always forgetting to do this And I didn't have any idea where I was in the hand at that point only that it didn't make a lot of sense. If I bet something like 50c am I not priced in now to call?

I think until $0.65 you are not commited. Something from $0.45 to $0.65 would be my bet, i think. Mostly a bet/fold.

Originally posted by jiffybag
Villain should have more hands that has showdown and checks back that river I think. My hand looks like a T now when I check.

Against his range, JJ or KT makes no difference. Either he betas a T (with the A) consequently beating you, or he doesn't. Main advantage of having JJ instead of KT there is that not only JJ win, but also is more likely that he has a T, since you are not blocking it.

Main thing here is if villain would shove to force you to fold a T having bluffs with enough frequency. Honestly, considering that you checked that river, if I was the villain, I think I'd try to buy the pot with any hand, but we need to consider what bluff hands villain can be holding there.
If he had a T, wouldn't he have already shoved for value, instead of waiting for a card clearly on your range? He can hold the raise with a FH until the river, IP. He can have nothing and shove merely against your check. I also don't think on his line he would shove any A (except A5, ofc) for value. My thought would mostly be on FH or bluff, the thing is that there are not that many bluff hands reaching the river, unless he decided to bluff you regardless at the beggining of the hand.

Honestly, considering that you checked that river, if I was the villain, I think I'd try to buy the pot with any hand, but we need to consider what bluff hands villain can be holding there.
If he had a T, wouldn't he have already shoved for value, instead of waiting for a card clearly on your range? He can hold the raise with a FH until the river, IP. He can have nothing and shove merely against your check.

I was thinking a 5 raise either on the flop or turn and a f/h would keep calling. But like you say the A does hit my range, why would I check a A now? I have a clear value bet now as I beat all villains Ax except for A5 and AT and villain might still pay off a small bet with a T.
I ended up using my whole-time bank trying to come up with a range that I beat, and there is very little imo. I folded.