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AA 3bp OOP - Flop favors caller. (I think)

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jiffybag
Joined: 21.12.2010

Villain is unknown. I'm still ahead of V calling range, but this flop isn't one I would get stacks in on. I still want to bet this flop, if there was a FD as well I might consider a check. Thoughts?

Range I gave V

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Win Tie
BU 16.23% 15.94% 0.28% { QQ-55, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QJo }
BB 83.77% 83.49% 0.28% { AdAs }

GG Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB: $2.16 (108 bb)
Hero (BB): $2.00 (100 bb)
CO: $2.69 (134.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has A♦: A♠:
fold, BTN raises to $0.06, fold, Hero raises to $0.22, BTN calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.45, 2 players) Q♣: 9♥: T♠:
Hero?


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7 replies
LookAwayNow
Joined: 30.06.2011

We have an overpair and villain can have a lot of one pair hands and draws, that we want to get value from and charge, so we start off with a c-bet, I would go around half pot.


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I will cbet here. KQ,QJ and maybe Tx hands will call at least one bet


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yangmartins
Joined: 28.11.2009

I have no clue on this, without info on villain. This board is much a range equaliser.
My only (possibly) useful intake in this is "why do you want equity against his entire range"?

I wouldn't care about the times he'd have 55 on that board. He would fold 100% for FCbet and catch a 5 rare enough if it goes to SD on check/check every street.

Your equity against calling range, on the other hand, would be something to equate.
Considering in his IP call he could have pairs you "dominate" and str8 that dominate you. Sets would most likely raise you in that texture. The frequency of those would be interesting (and probably decisive)


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yangmartins
Joined: 28.11.2009

Originally posted by yangmartins
Your equity against calling range, on the other hand, would be something to equate.
Considering in his IP call he could have pairs you "dominate" and str8 that dominate you. Sets would most likely raise you in that texture. The frequency of those would be interesting (and probably decisive)

Wide range:

Board: 9♥T♠Q♣
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     51.55%  50.99%   0.57% { JJ-99, AQs-A9s, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 87s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
BB     48.45%  47.88%   0.57% { AdAs }

Filtered range:

Board: 9♥T♠Q♣
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     58.59%  58.01%   0.58% { JJ-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
BB     41.41%  40.83%   0.58% { AdAs }

So, "I still want to bet this flop", fair enough. But be aware that if you're called, you'll be in a very bad shape.

On the other hand, if you check, you'll be betted into a lot, probably with slight edge (depending on villain).

Maybe the line there could be 1/3 Cbet and consider all the extraction done. Or check/raise to give up further (think that'd be my line). If villain checks behind, do 1/3 in a brick turn.
___________________________________________________________________________________
P.S. Curiosity: If turn and river bricks, your equity against filtered range is nice:

Board: 9♥T♠Q♣ 2♣ 5♠
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
BU     46.43%  46.43%   0.00% { JJ-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
BB     53.57%  53.57%   0.00% { AdAs }

In my vocabaluary it means that if villain is ahead and allows SD, is his mistake, not yours, thus your profit. You are the one profiting from "free cards"


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
I will cbet here. KQ,QJ and maybe Tx hands will call at least one bet

Agreed.
And I would bet large — 2/3 to 4/5 pot, and get it in happily if opponent raises.
You most definitely need to make opponent pay to see another card.

If you lose, you lose.
And I certainly don't mind if they fold.


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jiffybag
Joined: 21.12.2010

Board: 9♥ T♠ Q♣ 2♣ 5♠
Equity Vencer Empate
BU 46.43% 46.43% 0.00% { JJ-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
BB 53.57% 53.57% 0.00% { AdAs }

What are you using to get this? Your numbers seem closer than mine, yet the ranges are similar.


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yangmartins
Joined: 28.11.2009

Originally posted by jiffybag

Board: 9♥ T♠ Q♣ 2♣ 5♠
Equity Vencer Empate
BU 46.43% 46.43% 0.00% { JJ-99, AQs-AJs, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }
BB 53.57% 53.57% 0.00% { AdAs }

What are you using to get this? Your numbers seem closer than mine, yet the ranges are similar.

Just simple Equilab ranges. Didn't even filter, except for what I think villain would carry down to river. The predominace of his range is on Js and 9s hands, if one of those hits the board, just run away.

Because of this simpla stats, I recognize my check/raise option would be a big mistake.

Again, out of curiosity, look at the equity against any paired J:

Board: 9♥T♠Q♣
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
SB     45.26%  44.66%   0.61% { Js9d }
BB     54.74%  54.13%   0.61% { AdAs }

You need villain to continue with unpaired Js, for CBet to be a equity "most"

Board: 9♥T♠Q♣
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
SB     32.41%  31.80%   0.61% { Js2d }
BB     67.59%  66.98%   0.61% { AdAs }

Nightmare spot. No right/wrong decision, imo.
Betting 1/3 you give unpaired Js odds.
Betting 1/2 hardly takes away the equity of paired Js and you risk building a pot for villain already ahead.
Think I'd preffer to keep villain range in a cheap SD, but that probably is me thinking away from the table.


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