Bigger is Better: The Climb Begins NL2-NL100

Goal 1: Continue working on Unleash the Champ from Raise Your Edge. It's a free Mental Game Course, probably the most valuable piece of free poker content on the internet right now in my humble fishy opinion. I don't devote a set time limit to this, it's more work on it as much as I can stomach it. If ya know.... ya know.

Goal 2: Implement a daily meditation practice using Headspace on Netflix. Start with 1 Session per day at the end of the day to wind down.

Goal: Build a deep understanding of equity vs different 3-bet ranges before playing a single hand.

Step 1: Building the Equity Matrix

Construct spreadsheets for each position’s opening range (UTG, MP, CO, BTN, SB, BB).
Assign likely 3-bet ranges for villains (tight 1%-5%, standard 6%-10%).
Calculate equity vs each range for every position.
Define break-even calling equity based on pot odds.

Step 2: Running Sims & Testing

Use Flopzilla/PokerStrategy charts to compare hands within the breakeven threshold.
Determine profitable calls vs auto-folds vs 4-bet spots.
Identify key thresholds where calls turn into folds as villain gets tighter.

Step 3: Creating the Response Blueprint

Build a structured approach to 3-bet defense based on data.
Define action plans for each position (i.e., what % of hands to call, fold, or 4-bet).
Prepare for common postflop spots that arise from these situations.

Thus far, we want to have the bigger number in order to win more often. And the real skill in the game comes from being able to pay attention and being able to understand the situation you're in. Listen, this is part of the reason why I'm doing these challenges, so my study is a little more structured and thought out. I'll do better moving forward
Graphs & results tracking

Hands of the week (good + bad plays)

Well off I go! Good luck out there this week, see you around the forums!

Preflop: Solved (Well, Mostly)
For years, I treated preflop ranges like sacred text—memorize this, follow the chart, don’t ask questions. But I cracked it. Instead of mindlessly memorizing range charts, I boiled it down to a simple equation. No more second-guessing, just pure understanding.
Of course, there are always exceptions…

The Human Factor
Math alone doesn’t solve poker. Humans are messy. They tilt, they misplay, and they don’t always follow the book. GTO’s mixed strategies exist to avoid players like me—because I tear apart rigid, linear play. But that’s fine.
I don’t need GTO to win.
I need reads, adjustments, and max pain for my opponents.

Some key takeaways:

4 combos of suited hands = 0.30% of a range
6 combos of pocket pairs = 0.45%
12 combos of offsuit hands = 0.90%
Now, once I understand you, I can adjust—and you better believe I’m watching.

What’s Next?
Taking a short break to let everything sink in, then building a training routine to lock it in. Next up: postflop warfare.

The final piece of the puzzle?
When a reg sees me sit down, I want them to NOPE right out of the lobby.

These are my fish now. Go find your own.

I’ve turned my biggest weakness—overanalyzing—into my biggest weapon.

And that’s dangerous.

Until next time. 😈