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[Closed] NL100 KJs first hand

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DeKuip
Joined: 07.03.2008

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($21.50)
CO ($103)
BTN ($45.15)
SB ($22)
Hero ($100)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB J♠ K♠
1 fold, CO raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: 6♦ 7♠ K♦ ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $15, CO calls $10

Turn: Q♠ ($38.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, CO calls $25

River: 3♦ ($88.50, 2 players)
Hero ($56)?

Didn't have any stats while playing (first hand at the table), but I knew Villain was a regular who appeared to be solid.

Fold preflop? Check/raise flop or just c/c? Bet more on turn, or don't bet at all? Represent the flush on the river or just check?


4 replies

Do you want shove river as a bluff or for value?
Shoving for value is very thin, so I would prefer shoving for bluff. But don´t really think he has there too many times AK/AA, since he´d shove turn then himself since board is getting really scary.
I´d c/f river
With blank river card I´d likely c/c, since I don´t expect to get called too many times by worse Kx hands/JJ/TT if I shove river myself
Also that leaves to interesting situation. If we can´t shove river for value why would be betting turn? I think one good option with likely possibly best hand and if get called a lot of outs is to c/rai on the turn


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Preflop is ok.

I the flop-checkraise, he has a hard time folding 88-JJ because you're checkraising a lot of draws on this board.
But i'd c/r a bit bigger like $18-$19, you're giving him 2.8:1 pot odds.

Once he called your checkraise i put him on a range like {KJ, KQ, maybe AK (if he didn't 3bet the flop with it), 88-QQ, 98, some FD}.

Vs this range of at least 7 drawcombinations (1 of each: QJ, JT, T9 for the FD and 4 of 98s for the OESD) and 6 KQ, 3 QQ as well as up to 8 AK i think a bet is ok.
And there are more drawcombos in his range like AJ-A9, so you want to protect your hand.

If he raises you can call his shove imo. It's a somewhat thin call but given that he's 3betting AK and KQ some percentage of the time at the flop and sometimes calls draws and shoves the turn with them (especially nutflushdraws) i think a call should be fine:
Board: Kd 7s Qs 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.659% 69.66% 00.00% 613 0.00 { QQ, AKs, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KQs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 30.341% 30.34% 00.00% 267 0.00 { KsJs }

There is every single combination of AK and KQ in the range and it still is a close call (you need 56/200=0.28=28% equity and you have >30%).

At the river i'd likely c/f.
His range looks a lot like draws once he called on the turn and if he got here with AK i wouldn't be too sure about his capability of folding it at the river.


DeKuip
Joined: 07.03.2008

Thanks for the reply.

But I was kinda surprised why I didn't see his actual hand coming back in the handrange you give him. He had A♦ Q♦ , but you never really mentioned the possiblity of him holding AQ.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

My mistake, sorry.
But it doesn't change the evaluation, one FD-combination in this range doesn't change your equity that much.

You could even argue that you should discount some of his flushdraw-combinations because he sometimes 3bets those on the flop. Once you think of his range it basically doesn't matter whether you discount AJ or AQ because equitywise they're basically the same hands, the equity difference should be about 3-5% (just estimated it) and then he 3bets both of these with different frequencies on the flop, so you can never calculate your real equity in this spot, it's always an approximation (yeah i know all of this sounds like a cheap excuse for missing out on AQ ).