$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($134)
UTG+1 ($100)
CO ($101)
BTN ($66.10)
SB ($124)
BB ($100)
Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG K♠ K♥
Hero raises to $4, UTG+1 calls $4, 4 folds
Flop: 9♥ Q♠ Q♥ ($9.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $17, Hero ???
Fold, call or maybe even reraise?
Only 423 hands from Villain, 15/12 and 4.3 3bet. Flop AF 7.8 and AFq 55% (based on 49 hands he saw the flop with)
don´t really see any value 3-betting flop, but at the same time your hand is too strong to b/f flop
So that leaves b/c flop, c/c turn, check/evaluate river
15/12 can´t really have a lot of Qx hands on his range. Likely AQ; KQ, maybe QJs and also 99 that would beat your hand. Also some times he´d just call your flop bet and maybe raise on the turn
That would make his hand kind of polarized, so you can easily call down two streets and then hope river goes c/c
Cbet a bit bigger, like $7.50.
I think i'd actually fold vs his raise when he's doing this the first time.
It seems weak to fold, but his range is super-polarized.
And since he's a nit it is safe to assume he's rarely bluffing.
The problem with your hand is, that his bluffingfrequency even decreases by the turn because Qx is also a part of your range and he should be afraid of it - your call OOP shows strength obviously.
So imo you can't call again on the turn - which means you're only calling to fold to further action.
That allows him to bluff you if he has no SD-value and take freecards with his draws, a very bad scenario because you will make mistakes regardless of what cards are coming or what he does.
Of course if he raises frequently on this kind of paired boards you have to adjust and start calling his raises.
Thanks, it kinda makes sense to fold the flop when you explain it like this.
So first time I can give him respect, but 2nd/3rd/etc. I should be thinking of this as a possible bluff.
And what do we do then, we call or we 3bet?
Vs this opponent this is probably a fold every single time given the positions.
Vs a more aggro oponent i'd call on the flop with the plan to c/r the turn.
By calling the plan is not to get him to stack off with JJ - it's to catch his bluffs, so that is what i'm gonna do: allow him to bluff the turn.
Since it's unlikely for him to fire a 3rd barrel - two calls OOp are somewhat strong even though it still looks as he could get us off of JJ or TT - i'd c/r the turn because he still has some draws in his range against which i want to protect my hand.
And to make c/c turn, c/c river profitable the opponent would have to be aggro enough to fire the river again with his air.
Very few opponents on NL100 are capable of that.
Originally posted by DeKuip
Thanks alot for the quick response, you're the best!
Np and thx :).
im definitely not folding flop... af is so high, could easily have JT or hearts semi bluffing
Originally posted by mbml
im definitely not folding flop... af is so high, could easily have JT or hearts semi bluffing
You're right, it is high.
But you have to consider that the AF correlates with the VPIP - he has a range of 15%, vs an UTG raise it's even tighter.
That means once he enters a pot he simply has a hand most of the time and therefore his AF is high.
What raisingrange do you expect him to have that you're willing to call against?
