[Closed] NL200 fr AKo

he might be fast playing 9X in this spot but I think he would slowplay flopped quads/boat.

As usual, if you think villian folds so little to cbets (48% is not as bad as you think), you should be check/folding way more often and maybe check/calling as well. I really don't like your check/raise bluffs OOP because they are really expensive and may easily fail (villian is going to flat with marginal and monster hands most of the time as opposed to getting it in on the flop)

He might fastplay yeah....

I think c-/fing is really really nitty when I am UTG raiser and can represent something.

So when you have QQ+ in this spot, you love check-raising basically.

I don't think check/fold is that nitty especially against a tricky opponent. It's a paired board (harder to hit him but he doubts you have it too, so few JX in your range), the two cards are one card away (9 and J) and there's a flushdraw. If I were villian, I would almost always float you here if you have 85-90% cbet and pressure you a lot on the turn. I can represent the flush and the straight easily

Besides if we check/fold more on these undesirable spots, our perceived range when we cbet becomes much stronger = villian plays back at us fewer times in the future

He is rarely folding to cbets because he has a hand most of the time!

This is because he plays 18/15 - once he enters a pot by calling an openraise there's a 3% window of hands that he could have.
J99 hits this window very hard because he has some pocket pairs and maybe some hands like JTs, T9s, QJs, KJs.

So I'm either bet/folding the flop to get out 88 and worse or I just check/fold because he has you beat a lot and he's not folding.

Checkraising in this spot vs this particular player is most certainly -EV.