[Closed] 2/4 T9o defend

I would peel 1 card, and mostlikely fold turn unimproved. He is not going to to fold any A, or even K high.

Funktor

Originally posted by funktor
I would peel 1 card, and mostlikely fold turn unimproved. He is not going to to fold any A, or even K high.

Funktor

I also find myself doing this very often in similar situation. But what do you achieve by peeling? This guy is gonig to bet the turn on this board at least 95%, and we only improve 1 in 7.8 so therefore, roughly 78%[(0.9x6.8)/7.8] of the time , we have to fold the turn.

So 83% we loose 1sb = -0.83sb
c/f 5% we win 6sb = +0.3sb
we improve 12% which would give us 77% equity against a 77% open raising range (3.5x21) which equates to;
12%x(77% of 8sb) = +0.74sb

therefore EV(call) = +0.21sb.

Okay, so i set out to show a call to be -EV and actualy shown that it was +EV. Although i guesss these calculations arent so accurate as my assumptions on his cbet turn range as well as preflop range are very much guesses. As well as the equity i gave us when we improve was against his full open raising range where in reality some of his weaker hands will not cbet the turn which would reduce our equity. I also have not factored reverese implieds or implieds but we'll assume they cancel out.

So i guess after all a call is +EV but its marginal and a fold is not so bad either, but i guess a call could also have advantages in metagame terms to avoid abuse in similar spots.

Hi!

It depends on how agressive are you and how agressive is your oponent in blind battles.
Basically this is topic from the article # Heads-up on the Flop OOP: C/C Flop without Initiative - without Showdownvalue and you need cca 4,5 clean outs to call here. Since you are IP your 6 outs are relatively clean as implied odds are imo higher then reverse implied ones.

I personally always call this here since I plan on sometimes raising many turn to come.I would raise any T/9 and often even any J+ to make him fold Jx and Qx(and as he is not SD bound sometimes even Kx or Ax)

Hi DarthBobo,

I call here as well. Joshquan made a nice calculation to show that it's profitable and if you add the point Dawnfall26 mentioned it gets even better as he may fold a lot better hand with just 35% wts.

Originally posted by Joshquan

This guy is gonig to bet the turn on this board at least 95%, and we only improve 1 in 7.8 so therefore, roughly 78%[(0.9x6.8)/7.8] of the time , we have to fold the turn.

So 83% we loose 1sb = -0.83sb
c/f 5% we win 6sb = +0.3sb
we improve 12% which would give us 77% equity against a 77% open raising range (3.5x21) which equates to;
12%x(77% of 8sb) = +0.74sb

therefore EV(call) = +0.21sb.

Hi!, can someone explain me this calculation? Why (0.9x6.8)/7.8 ?
Why the 83% we loose 1sb?

Thanks!

Hi Confetii,

I don't understand the (0.9x6.8)/7.8 as well but 6.8 is the potodds we need to call with 6 outs.
So maybe he assumed that 90% of the time we have these 6 out = 0.9*6.8 = 7.8. That would make sense to me.

We lose 1 SB in 83% of the cases as you always "lose" 1 SB after calling the flop. That's 100%. But in 5% he check/folds and we win so that 95%. Now 12% of the time we improve so the Sb isn't lost as well = 83%.

Thanks cirith!, but I think was easier do 0,9x(1-0,1276) = 0,78

(0.9x6.8)/7.8, the 0,9 should be the chance the villain bets the turn, and 6,8 the chance we don't improve over the total (6.8/7.8). What I don't understand, is the general formula to do this calculation.

Regards!