[Closed] NL200 KK fold turn

I'm not sure about this. I think it's possible to be too paranoid about sets and getting coolered by monsters.

I think I rather bet fold the turn in preference to just giving up and check/folding.

Villain is quite tight but as the board is quite drawy some of the sets will be raised on the flop. He can definitely have 99 or JJ here sometimes and be calling on the flop with his g/shot (+ just floating since you don't hit this board with your entire range.) Since you would bet this bd with AKs, AQs almost always (even into 2), why not rep the flush yourself?

Agree with you pretty much! Good comment I planned to c/c turn but then realized he bet too much.. I also think now, that I should have probably bet 35/fold. Agreed.

Actually imo the c/f on the turn is nice.

When you think about his range there isn't anyting you can bet against:
He called on the BU when your openingrange was strong.
So he might have any pair, some suited connectors, some 2-broadway type of hands.

On the flop he calls with a player left to act on a drawy board, so we can put him on either a draw that doesn't want to isolate itself against a strong valuerange or a medium strength hand that can't fold because of its equity in the pot but doesn't want to raise because it's not that strong either.

So additional to FDs there's basically 98s, T9s, JJ-AA left.
While our equity against that range is about 43% imo he'd probably check back with 98, T9, JJ, KK, AA.

If we bet ourselves he mostly folds worse hands, so I think the options left are c/c and c/f.
If you think he bets those medium strength hands for free SD you can c/c, otherwise you should c/f imo.

That's interesting. Just for my benefit, would you expect him never to have hand like JT here?

If not, is that because you think he does not call such a hand preflop with his stats? Or because he does not call tpmk on the flop against our strong continuation bet with one player to act?

Originally posted by Tim64
That's interesting. Just for my benefit, would you expect him never to have hand like JT here?

If not, is that because you think he does not call such a hand preflop with his stats? Or because he does not call tpmk on the flop against our strong continuation bet with one player to act?

Preflop he could definitely call imo.
On the flop he may or may not continue, that depends on his current thought process, he could decide to peel the flop with TP+GS, so I wouldn't completely exclude it from his turnrange.
But at the same time I think he would usually not bet it.