[Closed] overpair with OESD

Hi,

Hard to say anything about stats without the sample size. I'd say most 13/13 are not just randomly check/raising overcards there, I'd expect to be 10-outing a lot against two pairs/sets/overpairs, sometimes drawing to a boat or a chop against T9s, sometimes a slight favorite against 2overs+FD hands.

If he's never on a pure bluff, calling mostly sucks because you don't know if he will follow up on the turn, and the majority of turn cards are going to look bad for your hand somehow. All diamonds, all overcards except a T. Board pairing cards might both make him slowdown with draws and make him confident him valuebetting sets again, and since you have no idea which you really won't be able to make good use of the information you get if you see him bet the turn.

I think the best play is to fold the flop when you're flipping at best, unless you're sure about him check/raising random overcards and shit, in which case you should shove over to collect dead money from his bluffs right then. That overlay will make it +ev for you to go broke even if when you get it in you're flipping/behind, and it'll prevent getting into a guessing game on most turns after just calling the flop.

Hope it helps.

Originally posted by cutegoldfish
i thought that he could do that with many overcards like KJo and the like and wanted to get it in there. at the same time he could also have a set that he was not going to lay down.

If you think he can do that with overcards then you are deadly wrong. No TAG did that with random overcards. Overcards + flushdraw is more likely but most likely he had 2 pair + here. A lot of plrs ch-raise with a monster on a draw-heavy flop, which is a mistake with a value hand but they still like to do that.

IMO the best move there is to bet/fold because if you don't hit your straight on turn you will have to fold turn. You can also check back flop given how draw heavy it is (you will be forced to fold to a well played flush draw given the mediocre strength of your hand) and bet turn if checked to you.