Dare to bet the river for value - a micro LHE adventure

Getting this as my 3bet range on the turn here, thats 8 draws to 3bet, does look ok to me, is it wrong somewhere? hes paying 2BB to win 10.2BB so I could probably 3b the two JT-combos aswell and I'de still be underbluffing, plus this is a board where he might well be overbluffing considering how many draws there are giving him a range something like this... but then again, he does raise his 6x, so its not really valid post showdown, but before i knew that plus I block some of his draws with this hand

BUs range
Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: 3 9 6 Q
Vs Hero Cards: T 8

Combinations in complete range: 575 

[b]  Grouped[/b]:  220 combos,  38.3% 
[b]Ungrouped[/b]:  355 combos,  61.7% 

  [b]Group 1[/b]:  170 combos, 77.3% (29.6% total) 
  [b]Group 2[/b]:   50 combos, 22.7% (8.7% total) 

[b]Group 1[/b]: Pair of nines or better, added 98s, 98o, removed Q6s, Q6o

99+, 66, 33, AQs, A9s, AQo, A9o, KQs, K9s, KQo, K9o, Q7s+, Qc6c,
Q5s (2), Q4s (2), Q3s, Q2s (2), Q7o+, J9s, J9o, T9s, T9o, 98s,
96s, 98o

[b]Group 2[/b]: Queen-high or worse with flush draw, queen-high or worse with open-ended, removed JTs, JTo, queen-high or worse with open-ended, remove queen-high or worse with flush draw, queen-high or worse with flush draw

JTs, J8s (2), J7s (2), J5s (2), J4s (2), JTo, T8s, T7s (2), T5s
(2), T8o, 87s, 87o, 75s, 54s

my range
Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: 3 9 6 Q

Combinations in complete range: 820 

[b]  Grouped[/b]:   85 combos,  10.4% 
[b]Ungrouped[/b]:  735 combos,  89.6% 

  [b]Group 1[/b]:   77 combos, 90.6% (9.4% total) 
  [b]Group 2[/b]:    8 combos, 9.4% (1.0% total) 

[b]Group 1[/b]: Two pair or better, pair of queens or better, removed Q3s

QQ+, 99, 66, 33, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, Q9s, Q6s, Q9o, Q6o, 96s,
96o, 63s

[b]Group 2[/b]: Flush draw and open-ended, removed JcTc, JdTd

T8s (2), 87s (2), 75s (2), 54s (2)

Within two days... and poker is still going terrible. Would like to ask the world to shove something up its arse so far it chokes, in the name of gamblers fallacy.

PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $14.10
Hero (UTG): $7.29
MP: $18.49
CO: $10.00
BTN: $6.71
SB: $13.94

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has T♥ A♥

Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.50, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.35, 2 players) 8♦ J♥ Q♥
Hero bets $0.25, BTN calls $0.25

Turn: ($1.85, 2 players) 5♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($1.85, 2 players) K♥
Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.00, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN raises to $2.00, Hero calls $0.50

BTN shows J♦ Q♦ (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks) (Pre 43%, Flop 50%, Turn 66%)
Hero shows T♥ A♥ (Royal Flush) (Pre 57%, Flop 50%, Turn 34%)
Hero wins $5.69

PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $14.46
BB: $4.45
Hero (UTG): $6.00
BTN: $10.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K♣ T♣

Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 4♦ Q♣ J♣
BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($2.10, 2 players) A♣
BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, fold

Hero wins $2.96

you complain about variance and then posts 2 royal flushes ♦ hahaha. Ive had only 4 - 5 royal flushes in my lifetime of poker. and you get 2 within what is it a few days ?.. shame on you ♦

well ye. its throwing an extreme anomaly in your face saying "well, if this can happen..." when youre doubting your game the most. well, in my case anyway. i might be a bit pessimistic, but the only thing I can hear atm is boomers voice from the variance and brm-video talking about the 100k sample of two equaly good players with one, a massive winner way over his wr, and the second one a loser over the sample, both extreme cases. Its kinda like, well it doesnt really matter what you do, how much you work on your game, when it comes down to it its still about luck in a sense and the only thing you can do about that is working as hard as possible to minimize it, but there are no guarantees and "to prove that youre still my bitch heres that extreme anomaly just to remind you of that"

which I know isnt a very constructive way to look at it, and there are loads of cliche answers to it, but it just pissed me off at the time its a bit amusing now, but then again, I'm not playing atm

Platina now being lucky with these status upgrades! Hoping for diamond next week then

A new year and new plans!

A bit more ambition this year perhaps with the goal to actually advance through the levels within time. This is possible due to changes irl.

The first goal I have is platinum star on pokerstars. It will take ~93k hands this month! ~100k for the next two to keep the level, and after that I'm hoping to have the br to be playing 1/2 again and after that I will slow down some in hands per month with about a third to give me more time to work on my game, and not burn out aswell. My intention is to continue to move up gradually.

But thats almost 300k hands before moving up in limits, how does that work?

Even though my irl situation has improved, I still will have to withdraw some money from my br the first two months, and I will still keep a 1kBB brm. I'm also thinking of skipping 0.5/1.0 due to the rake being so brutal at this limit making 0.25/0.50 so much more profitable at this stage. However I probably will play some of these tables if I find good ones. Need to adapt to higher limits aswell before hitting 1/2 so I don't end up playing scared. This is kinda undecided however, will meditate over it It's also possible, and kinda prefferable, that my life changes further to the positive, leaving me with less time to play and having my volume cut in half, but should this happen I can also drop the 1k brm so I hope I'll be able to progress in a fair pace. However supernove might be out of reach, thats a second goal for this year

So, to this month!

I haven't really been playing anything this month so far, but thanks to the vpp-boost I think platinum star is within reach.

This week the goal is 18k hands (Moving this week so the number of hands is abit lower)

Week 2 31.5k hands. This is the tough week, but I think I have it planned fairly well, so it should be doable

Week 3 and 4 22.5k hands per week which is a little bit slower than the average I think, but after the second week, taking it slower might be good.

I'm gonna try to update the blog every day I play.

The obvious problem, and obstacle to climb here is the volume, and the time it will take. Especially during the bad days/weeks and I have noticed during the more extreme weeks I had last year, that I tend to tilt when it goes bad, so I'm gonna have to work with that, however that is done... I'm kinda hoping that updating the blog reguarly will keep me on track, and thats the reason why I'm gonna update every day I'm playing.

Oh well, thats the plans for this year! Ambitious!

Originally posted by floaty
Even though my irl situation has improved, I still will have to withdraw some money from my br the first two months, and I will still keep a 1kBB brm. I'm also thinking of skipping 0.5/1.0 due to the rake being so brutal at this limit making 0.25/0.50 so much more profitable at this stage.

I absolutely disagree with this. Let's say you are a 4BB/100 winner pre-rake in 0.25/0.50 and a 3.5BB/100 in 0.5/1 (i'd guess that would be about it, in the relation [even better for 0.5/1]. both levels are quite similar, and 4BB/100 looks like a std-to-low winning rate on micro). That's 1BB/100 at 0.25/0.5 and 0.3BB/100 at 0.5/1 (this considering 3BB/100 and 3.2BB/100 rake respectively). Rakeback is about 25-30% for gold/platinum in stars, so let's get 25% here. That would be about an additional 0.75BB/100 at 0.25/0.50 and 0.8BB/100 at 0.5/1. Therefore, bottomline, your total WR would be:

1BB/100 + 0.75 BB/100 = 1.75 BB/100 @ 0.25/0.50

0.3BB/100 + 0.8 BB/100 = 1.1 BB/100 @ 0.5/1

obviously 0.5/1 is better than 0.25/0.50, even if you are a slightly positive player, with 0.1BB/100 winnings (!!!!!!!).

now, if you don't feel comfortable playing 0.5/1 that's a whole other reason. and, in that case, you shouldn't play 1/2 either ♦

either way, your long term game plan looks plain wrong (unless my rake numbers are completely biased, which is likely, although they are not hideously skewed for sure).

You're right! Thanks! I've been doing my calculations wrong on the rake back. However the rake is 3.5BB/100 as far as I can tell. But it does indeed generate more if you have a win rate of 0.3BB/100. I have a win rate of 0.45BB/100 so far over 50k hands, and 1.5 on .50, so ye, then its a no brainer.

So after day 1 of playing and I'm not very happy with my game. Been away for three weeks so not sure if thats whats going on, but will have to go back and find where I left of some how cause yesterday I played terribly, nitty and weak doing 26/20 with a WTSD of 36%!... usually at 32/24ish with 41ish WTSD, folded my BB way to often and my cbet on the turn was also way low. Think my river valuebetting was fair, so thats good I recon, but my over all play, terrible. My 3bet is abit low aswell. So today I'm gonna start of slower and keep an eye on myself, try to find my way back, starting of with lesser tables I recon. But I'm kinda worried about my game now

Nice little dip there losing like 130BB in less than 400 hands

Quick update about yesterday before I pack my computer and leaves for the new apartment

My game was alot better, though there are still things a need to work on. My wtsd is still way to low, so I have to find where I'm leaking, aside from that I think the game is at an ok standard to begin this journey at. Though I have a problem with implementing the stuff I learn into my game when its been going a couple of hours, running on auto-pilot and not really thinking to much about my game. Not sure how to go about that, more than keeping the sessions no longer than 1h if the games arent very good.

Result wise I'm kinda where I planed to be, a bit lower, but not much. Been a rollercoaster with swings though, but that happens I've come to learn

Done the hands I was supposed to. Now to the move!

Have not been doing my updates here and this one is gonna be a quick one again. I've been really busy the last days due to the move and a social life(!?), so time has been tight and I am behind some with my volume. Not that badly though, nothing I cant catch up

As for my game. It has improved alot since the first two days, and its looking really good now the last days, except for my turn play now where I tend to be to passive, I'm actually abit to passive all in all i think, but its mostly my turn play. So thats where Im gonna put my study work this week. Hoping that by the end of the week my game will be awesome

Results. Started off kinda bad, but its been going better and better and for now I'm actually doing better than expekted, but I'm pretty sure that will normalize in time.

hey floaty, stop making me beg and add me to skype! JLeitmotiv

Well, I got the cold again, nasty one. Been to tired to play, so ye, now I'm behind enough to not be able to catch up and I'm still not well... but I played 1200 hands today atleast! Went well to, so thats something atleast...

Originally posted by JLeitmotiv
hey floaty, stop making me beg and add me to skype! JLeitmotiv

uhm, I dont have skype

Originally posted by floaty
Well, I got the cold again, nasty one. Been to tired to play, so ye, now I'm behind enough to not be able to catch up and I'm still not well... but I played 1200 hands today atleast! Went well to, so thats something atleast...

Originally posted by JLeitmotiv
hey floaty, stop making me beg and add me to skype! JLeitmotiv

uhm, I dont have skype

too bad

anyway, keep working on that volume, try to play as many hands as possible, even if you don't reach your monthly goals. how many hands have you got so far?

I'm not even at 30k hands this month yet I've managed 5k hands this week so far, but yea, gonna try to get as many hands in there as possible!

Remember to claim your free coaching

How do I do it? How does it work?

Using Skype

Pm me first

Is this all a trick, luring me in to getting skype again? Cause it worked, and I now have skype! Yay!

...and yet another one!

PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $18.15
Hero (BB): $9.15
UTG: $25.89
CO: $2.71
BTN: $8.74

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A♦ K♦

fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25

Flop: ($4.00, 4 players) K♥ 2♦ J♦
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.25, SB raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, BTN raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($7.00, 3 players) T♦
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.00, SB calls $1.00, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN raises to $2.00, fold, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($12.00, 2 players) Q♦
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Hero shows A♦ K♦ (Royal Flush) (Pre 46%, Flop 31%, Turn 80%)
BTN mucks J♣ J♠ (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 54%, Flop 69%, Turn 20%)
Hero wins $12.84