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Last year was the worse year of my poker career. Although I made enough profit to pay for most of the expenses that need to be paid by poker I simply did not make massive amounts of money. Specifically, in the two or three years before my poker income exceeded Fiona's income from her real job. Last year it did not and we could not go on our anual holiday.
About September I started keeping very detailed stats on my live winnings. In January me and Fiona considered these stats. The result was that in December, which is traditionally the best poker month of the year, I was earning only about 9BB/100 hands. This was not nearly enough to justify the time input.
We decided that we would reconsider the position at the end of the month but it seemed to be decided that I would downgrade my live poker from "semi pro" (where certain expenses are paid from poker) to "hobby" where I will play substancially less and the profit will be just disposable income.
Then came the best January I have ever had. I had 6 solid winning sessions on the trot. By solid I mean about 15-20BB/hour or 40-60BB/100 hands.
So I guess it means I am still a "semi pro". However I am not sure but I have to consider whether the idea that I am there to pay the bills maybe have affected my game.....
I guess time will tell..
PS. srry I missed Zimmers but I had to go play live. I sold some online $ to another player hand had to go collect my money.
Played another winning session over the weekend.
Got QQ early and got it allin on flop in 3way pot. Villian 1 had TT. Villian 2 had OESD.
Villian 2 made straight.
Rebuy.
Very next hand I get AA and get it all in against villian 1 again. I hold up.
I am a few bb's up (dead money)
Bit later get QQ UTG open raise 3 callers. SB 3bets very big. I fold he shows AA.
Get KK raise 3 callers. I flop overpair + FD on mono board. I bet and take it down.
It continued that way untill I was about 140BB up and sitting with about 240BB.
Last 3 hands:
I overlimp with 33 MP2. About 3 more limpers. SB makes a raise to 3.5BB. Everyone calls. We 6 to the flop.
Flop: 234 (2x h)
It is checked to me so I make a PSB.
Folded to SB. He thinks and calls. (The call is just more than 25% of his stack)
Turn: 9h
SB ships for about PSB.
I tank and fold.
He shows AJo (no h) -> pure air.
He called the PSB on the flop to (i) hit his gutshot straight; or (ii) hit his overcards; or (iii) float oop and bluff the flush.
In retrospect his play was very -ev because I only call his turn shove with better hands. That means he has to successfully ship 1/3. He can never do that.
Few hands later I overlimp with QTs in LP.
flop J96 (2xc)
ep makes 1/2 PSB and there is a caller.
I call IP.
SB also calls.
Turn 8s (there are 2 flush draws now)
SB check
ep bets 1/4 pot
mp folds
I raise about 2/3 pot
SB ships 100BB
ep folds
I call.
Me: "hold up"
SB: "do you want to bet who has the best hand right now" (we dont have to show cards before the river)
Me: "I have the best hand"
SB: "no you dont. I will put my house on this hand"
Me: (worried about QT +FD)" well I have the nuts" and I show.
SB shows T7o for the 2nd nuts 
Yes he called with a gutshot to the 2nd nuts and then thinks he is so good that he wants to bet his house!
River Qd 
he hits his 3 outer to split!!
(the casino rakes split pots)
So I got it in as a 95%+ fav and still made almost no profit due to rake.
Last Hand:
KJo in CO
I raise over limpers.
3 callers including BTN.
Flop A35 (2 x spades)
everyone checks (I did not cbet because I know Btn likes any Ax)
Turn Qs
I make a 2/3 psb. (I have 2nd nut flush draw and I know btn does not have A)
BTN calls
everyone els folds
River 7s
I bet 1/4 psb
BTN calls
I show 2nd nuts. He shows nuts.
Yes he flat called the nuts IP on the river.
I go home with small profit.
Don't know how I stumbled onto this blog or site.... but now i've even taken the time to register.
Great blog, keep it up.
I've especially enjoyed it, since i've recently returned to SA after 9 years in the UK. Only played very casually in the UK (homegames) since i much prefer live games and haven't pursued online play too much. I probably fall into the category of a "happy loser". I play because I enjoy card games (played a lot of chess and backgammon when i was younger) and human mental jousting of live play.
Loser is probably a bit strong, since long-term i probably break even but i don't mind since i do have good winning sessions mixed in with losing ones. Basically works out to be a very cheap form of entertainment. Its as you said, I don't mind losing a little bit but if I got constantly crushed and made to feel stupid about it, I would stop playing. It is a good tip to always keep fish like me happy!
And my perspective about "that casino in the northern parts of jhb", for me there is very little fold equity with most of the players. Even if you're only playing solid hands and IP, if you keep on missing flops, c/betting just isn't doesn't get enough folds. Even worse, raising from UTG with AK often seems to get 4/5 flat callers which is extremely frustrating. I put it down solely due to Saffa males high aggression & ego and their refusal to be "bluffed" out the pot.
Apologies for high-jacking your thread.
I'll keep an eye out for you (although i don't play there often) and be sure to fold to all your raises!
yes the fold equity there is very low.
About a month ago there was this bit pot. Some guy had won a massive amount in the casino and had sat down on a 10ZAR/25ZAR table. There is no max buy in.
About an hour later everyone was playing deep VERY deep.
Then came a pot.... Long story short 3 players allin preflop.
AA vs QQ vs K3s!
POT (including dead money) just over 90K ZAR (yea that is about 3600BB!)
AA held up.
90k? holy shii....
I don't think i've ever been on those tables with more than 30k in the stacks.. let alone in the pot!
Cool blog. Just stumbled upon it now. Don't know how I missed it for so long. Will follow 
played, my 7th winning session in a row, last night.
What is noteworthy is that I only won one showdown! All my profit came from non showdown winnings. Particularly to hands where I 3bet preflop and took down some dead money.
I went to showdown 3 hands:
Hand 1
dealt 66. limped pot 4 players to the flop
flop KQ6 (2x diamond)
everyone check to btn who makes 2/3psb.
SB calls. {we pause for some history. The hand before BTN and SB had a big hand and SB won.} BTN says to SB : "not you again.." SB says to BTN: "just remember I just called I did not raise."
EP folds.
I make a 2/3 pot size raise. BTN calls. SB now raises. I ship. BTN folds and SB calls.
me: "do you have flush draw or KQ?"
SB: "KQ"
Turn J
River K
he hits his 4 outer.
REBUY (seems my first stack always goes )
Hand 2
dealt 44 in CO. I over limp. 6 players to the flop
flop: 422 (2 x diamonds)
everyone checks to BTN (super bluffy) who makes a full PSB.
SB calls. (SB is very tight regular.)
everyone folds to me I call.
turn: Tc
SB checks
BTN makes 2/3 psb
SB calls (more than half his stack)
I raise but only about 1/2 potsize because SB has less than 1/2 of that.
Btn folds.
SB shows Ad3d for the gutshot straight flush draw.
To my surprise he does not hit his 1 outer.
With dead money I am up for the night..but just.
Hand 3:
It is an orbit later and I am again in CO. dealt JQo.
Like a fish I over limp.
flop Q6Q (rainbow)
everyone checks and I check waiting for the bluffy btn to bet. He checks.
turn Kd (now there are 2 diamonds on the board)
everyone checks to bluffy's friend in MP. He is even more bluffy. He bets. I consider raising him because he might have a hand but decided to just flat. Btn also flats.
river 9d (now there is a flush and a straight possible). MP checks. I check. Btn makes a very small bet (even less than the turn bet). MP considers calling. Btn says to him: "I am strong like bulls". His friend folds. I almost folds but decide to call just to see his cards.
He shows Ad4d (nut flush)
This brings me to an Idea that I would like to share to the reader....
next post
I have learned something that holds true in Live poker as well as Online poker.
It relates to bet size tells.
Although it is no more than a rule of thumb it is still very valuable.
The rule is as follows:
“Players normally utilize a bet size contra to their playing style for their big hands and a bet size in conformity with their playing style for their weak to normal hands”
EXPLANATION:
Assuming the board on the river is:
Ad As 2s Tc 6h
Assuming we hold:
T9os
Assuming 2 scenarios:
1) Villain has A9o
2) Villain has Ks Qs
Question is how much should he bet on the river?
No it does NOT matter how the betting went. No it does NOT matter how big the stacks are.
With A9o villain should bet the maximum amount we would be willing to call.
With Ks Qs villain should bet the maximum amount we would be willing to call PLUS 1 CHIP.
This rule of mine predicts that a PASSIVE VILLIAN (low aggression factor) will:
With A9o bet the maximum amount HE would be willing to call with HIS hand.
With Ks Qs bet the maximum amount HE would be willing to lose with HIS hand.
Therefore passive villains normally utilize big bets (in contras to the low aggression factor) for big hands and small bets (in conformity to the low aggression factor) for small hands.
This rule of mine predicts that a MANIAC VILLIAN (high aggression factor) will:
With A9o bet the amount that he is certain we will call even with the worse hand in our range.
With Ks Qs bet the amount that he is certain we will fold even the best hand in our range.
Therefore maniac villains utilize small bets (in contras to the high aggression factor) for big hands and big bets (in conformity to the high aggression factor) for bluffs.
That observation does make sense, but it is still-strong means weak and vice versa, so not in collision with basic poker observation principles.
Played my casino bi-monthly bounty tourney last night.
How it works is that 36 people are invited to play. Buy in is R1000 (ZAR) and there is no rake. Then 4 of the floor manager are entered with a R2500(ZAR) bounty on each. The floor managers are not allowed to cash.
Because the wsop - africa is being played the turnout was bad and we ended up being only 28 players and 3 bounties (2 x R3300 and 1 x R3400).
I ended up on the seat directly left of the bigger bounty. This bounty normally plays untill the first break and if he has not been eliminated will proceed by shoving blind every hand thereafter. Things were looking very good.
The first 2 levels we were playing very deep and I manage to get chip lead on the table and even show a bluf with 32s.
Just before the break I am BB and got dealt K8o. About 4 limpers.
flop KK4 (raindbow)
everyone checks.
Turn Qc (now there are 2 clubs)
SB (Bounty) makes 1/2 psb.
I flat everyone folds.
River Tc (now flush present)
SB (Bounty) puts half his stack in (about 2x pot bet)
I tank and open fold my trip kings. Bounty shows QQ (he turned the boat)!
Next hand i get A7s (clubs). Again 4 limpers and I complete.
flop T86 (two clubs).
I check and everyone checks to CO who makes about 1/2 psb (1/3 of his stack). I notice that the 2nd big stack who limped in ep seems interested (he already cut chips to call) So I decided to flat. I thought that I had about 40% equity against the short stack and he is almost never folding so raising no good. Plus if I make my draw I might get some chips from the big stack.
turn: 5d
I now have oesd + FD + one over card. I check (in retrospect betting out was probably best). Ep checks and CO ships. I tank a bit and call hoping that my reluctance will keep ep in the pot with a weaker draw. ep folds.
river blanks.
In 2 hands I went from chip leader to just under avg stack.
We go on the first break.
True to form we come back and bounty annouces that he is allin blind every hand.
Unlucky I am UTG the first hand.
Bounty loses most of his stack.
Next Hand I am BB. UTG goes allin and gets called. BTN over ships (everyone wants to get the bounty). Bounty goes allin blind. I have 96s and folds. CO (the only player who had bounty covered!) calls.
Yes 3 people went allin hoping to take the bounties chips without having him covered! (ok BTN did have a hand)
Bounty shows 75o
CO (only player that has him coverd) shows 87o.
Flop AJ7xx
BTN takes main pot with AJ
CO takes Bounty !
I go card dead but by makeing a few good moves got my stack up to about avg stack.
Then began my card run:
We are 12 left. UTG (poker pro and same player that had BTN against bounty - will say a bit more about him later) makes a big raise. I am MP and look down to KK. The call is about 20% of my stack. Whiles thinking I notice that CO and BTN has their cards over the line. They going to fold. So I decided to flat with the intention of shiping any flop. I call.
Flop: T92 (rainbow)
UTG checks. I bet about 2/3 pot. He folds. He was on a bluff.
In next 10 min 2 people get eliminated and we on final table.
Next Hand:
UTG (big stack from other table) makes a big raise. I look down to AA. Again I flat and everyone folds.
Flop: T72(rainbow)
He bets I ship he calls. He shows 88.
I hold up and double up.
Couple of hands later I am BB.
UTG with about 12 BB makes it 3bb to go. CO (new player that only got to final table by busting the one bounty QQ<44) flats. I have QQ and I ship. UTG folds.
CO open folds KTo!.
Later and I am CO:
UTG (very old man I have played with for years)with very short stack makes min raise. I look down to AA and I ship. He calls. I hold up. We down to 9.
Second break.
We come back and I am BB. Even before cards are dealt BTN say: "lets see what Fanie will do if I steal his blind".
I have to pause here. BTN is the same guy that had AJ vs the bounty. He is the same guy against whom I had KK earlyer. We have a very long history. It all "exploded" last year during the final table of exactly these bounty tournies. It was september last year and the floor had decided that in stead of price money they were going to give seats to the WPT event that was held in October. Just before the 1+bubble I surgested a deal which, although he had less than an avg stack, he objected saying : " I will not make a deal untill Fanie is eliminated". He got eliminated next. I could not help myself and made a well considered comment. Since then ... well.
Back to last night so the cards are dealt and everyone folds to him and he makes a 3x raise. SB folds. I look down and see AA. (yep in final 12 I got AAx3 KK x 1 and QQ x 1 I was running cold 
) I 3bet to 8BB. He folds and shows T5o. I muck.
Shortly thereafter the new player got eliminated and we down to 8.
We continue playing for about 1 hour without any elimination.
By that time thing we crazy. We had 8 players left and the blinds were 6K/12K. Considering that the starting stack was 12K that means that between the 8 players there were only 33BB. THE AVG STACK WAS THEREFORE 4BB!. Top 5 pays.
I had build up to 76K and was 2nd Chip leader. With the Chip leader having 84K. The short stacks were our old friend with about 21K and a player sitting between we and the bigstack. He had about 18K.
Big stack is BB. Very short stack (18K) is SB with 6K in sb. I am BTN and our friend is CO. Folded to our friend. He ships. I look down to TT and I over ship.
SB calls (allin). BB folds.
CO A6o
Me TT
SB AJo
Board runs out:
8A8K6.
They split my money.
Well it did not last long.
Very short stack is ALLin next hand and gets eliminated. We down to 7.
2 hands later. Our friend gets eliminated.
As he gets up, he is still standing next to me, I surgest to the table that we make deal to give bubble back his money which is accepted.
2 hands later I am BB and the short stack ships. It is just more than a min raise and I call blind. Q2s<AJo. Now I have just less than 4 BB left which is avg stack. I am SB it gets folded to me and I ship A4o. BB calls and has me dominated.
I leave with no profit no loss. Not good for my hourly rate but it so easly could have gone different.
Fiona and I have just made a $50 donation to Daniel Negreanu's fund raising to help Children with cancer.
Fiona's sister died of cancer at the age on 15.
WE CHALLENGE EVERY READER TO:
1) MATCH OR BETTER OUR DONATION
2) MATCH EVERY ONE OF THEIR FRIENDS TO MATCH OUR CHALLENGE
These kids deserve a chance. Lets give it to them.
Had 8th winning live session on the trot.
No fireworks just 1 showdown in 6hour session.
Had AK on BTN. 4 limpers. I make big PFR and get 1 Caller (MP).
Flop JT6
He checks I make standard Cbet. He calls. (I kick myself)
Turn K
He checks. I decided to check because I dont believe any worse hands will call and I dont want to go stack
River 6
He bets. I call. He shows KQo and I take the pot.
Only other relevent hand was:
I have AJo in CO with 3 limpers. I raise and everyone calls.
Flop: T86
Everyone checks. I check. (not making cbet into 3 players on that board)
Turn K
Everyone checks. I bet representing the K but have gutshot incase things go wrong. Two players fold. Last player picks up his cards and looks at it for a long time. (Pro tip: When players look at their cards a general rule of thumb is: the longer they look the weaker their cards) He calls
River 2
Player insta check with a "that card helps me nothing" look. I consider checking behind expecting my A-high to be good a lot of the time but decided to make a small bluff. I make a 1/2 psb in case player has AQ or 8x which he should fold. Also I dont want 2 show my cards. Player takes calling chips but after some thought he folds. In retrospect I believe he had T9/98/87 or 76. So it was good bluff.
Rest of the night I just kept alive with some selective aggression takeing non showdown winnings.
I went home with just about 35BB profit.
BUT it is 8 in a row.
Is it just me or is FTP "funny".
Played 4 rush tournies with total of 6 entries.
The deepest I got was 60 hands deep.
What got me was firstly a very unlikely hand and then when I went back to review the hand I found the hands "gone". 
I could see the hands in the FTP client but some of the hands were never stored to my HDD. What makes it most strange is that the hands not stored was also those WTF hands when you see villians hands.
eg.
(I cannot convert because I dont have hand history)
Blinds are 30/60
I am BB with just under 5000chips
UTG open ships for about 6500 chips
MP with 900 BB calls
LP with 900 BB calls
I have QQ and decide to call.
UTG shows Ks6s
MP show 6c5c
LP shows AKo
Board runs out:
3s 4c 2c 5s 7s
I go WTF how does 150BB openship UTG with K6s and gets called by 65s and they both make straight and UTG also makes flush?
Then when I go look the hand history is gone????
I know people do strange things but this is really strange and this was the first time I ever seen that a hand history for a hand just "disappear".
I went back to some of the strange calls I saw today, including but not limited to 82s and 52s that called me oop and both flopping 2 pair against my over pair and yes both hands were in my hand history on the client but not in HM or PT or on my HDD?
Dont know what to make of it but I really not comfortable playing the rush tournies there atm.
Had my 9th winning session on the run.
I was hitting the flop very hard.
Had
3 x 2nd nut fullhouse
2 x baby flushess
1 x bottum straight
Had AK 4x of which 2x was in 3bet pot and hit both.
I won every showdown.
Biggest single pot:
I am SB. About 5 limpers. BTN makes it 5BB. I 3bet to 15BB. UTG ships to 42BB. BTN folds. After some consideration I decide (a) UTG does not have KK or AA...just my read and (b) I am getting good price against QQ. So I call. BTN says he folded JJ. UTG shows 88. I flop TPTK and it holds.
In 3 hours (+- 100 hands) I was 200 BB up which is my stop win. So I got home early.
yea!
session 10 !
Amazing how, simply by holding up, you can make big profit.
4.5 hour session .. 200BB profit.
Just held up in few pots.
Biggest hand of the night:
In CO with KQo couple of limpers I make it 5BB to go.
Flop Q62
BB leads out just under 1/2 pot. I make a less than potsize raise. The effective stack is about 70 BB and with this raise I can ship the turn. He thinks a bit and calls (I put him on QJ-QT).
Turn 8c (now there are 2 clubs on the table)
He makes a very small bet 10 BB into 100 BB with only about 30BB behind. This makes me worry but I decided to ship going with (a) my read on the flop and (b) my commitment decision on the flop. He thinks a bit and calls.
He calls for a club on the river that never arrives and shows QcTc.
My kicker plays and I take a pot of about 260BB.
One further interesting hand:
I am SB and there are 4 limpers. I have KQo. I note that 2 of the limpers are players that like to limp with big hands ie. KK+ and AK so I just complete.
Flop AsQhQs. {I have Ks}
I check and it is checked to MP who makes a pot size bet. I know MP. He limps with Ax and always bets A - high board. He then continues to bet every street and specifically bets big on the river. So I call. A short stack ep limper also calls. I know I am well ahead and I am looking to get the short stack allin on the turn and then collect the big bet from mr Ax on the river.
Turn Ad
I check mr Ax makes an overbet. I fold. Mr Ax shows AhTh.
well all good things must come to an end.
session 11 was not winning.
Went home 15BB down after being really card dead.
In fact the last 2 hours of the session I was counting how many flop I would have hit/missed had I played every hand. "hitting the flop" means starting with an unpaired hand and connecting any card to the flop. ie. T2o on a AK2 flop is considered a hit.
My record last night was 17 consessive flops missed. Normal math is you should hit about 1:3.
I went to showdown only 3 hands.
First hand was AA. I had it UTG and made a big raise and got 5 callers. I got it all in on the flop vs ATs (Flush draw) and I held.
Next hand i had AK in CO. MP is a well known old italian man. He is bussy ordering another beer and calls blind. I make it 7BB to go. BB calls. MP calls.
Flop A44 (rainbow)
BB checks.
MP finally picks up his cards and looks. He then bets less than 1/2 pot. I know villian well and the bet can be anything from any broadway to 4x. I flat planing to controll the pot. BB folds.
Turn 9
Mp checks.
I check.
MP makes some speach about how nice man I am by not betting.
River 9
Mp checks.
I am about to make a small value bet when MP starts telling me how he is going to be nice to me and he turn over:
99.
Yes he went runner runner quads.
The last showdown was against the same villian that paid of my AA. Long story short I had AKs (diamonds) and the board ran out
QdQs6cJd5h ( I missed my RF draw)
Villian shows 22!
Funny of the night:
The same villian that had 99 against me is on the river against another old italian man. The board shows four harts.
Villian makes a bet on the river. Other old man shows 6h for the 6high flush. Villian tells other man : "you are good".
Second man: " am I good? ok then I call"
First man turn over Kh for the 2nd nut flush.
Second man takes his chips back out the pot and say: "you said I was good. You bluffed me. I am not paying you."
Are they allowed to do that stuff in live games then? Seems a bit underhanded to me but I wouldn't know.
On the brighter side, after 39 thousand winning sessions in a row, I shouldn't be too worried about 15bb! 
No the pitboss came and ruled the bet and call stands.
What was funny was that the guy only wanted to call if he won and was very suprised that the other player was "bluffing" him.
I could not controll myself and I was rolling with laughter