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Liar Dice - Diary of a Bean Counter!

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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Okay, so hit a bit of a snag on the $60s. Think I'm over adjusting a bit to the more aggressive play and not giving people credit where it's due. Also running 8BI below EV (nearly $500) which is a little annoying.

Couple more buyins before my stoploss kicks in and then I will need to take a break.

Overall the month is still going well. ROI 10.8%, EV 7.2% after 225 tourneys. Average buyin just over $30. Let's see how the next few go...

Thanks for reading


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Another fail on the volume front. Only managed 40 trnys today. 11 BI below EV but the red line is trending nicely...

$20s-$60s

Only $140 remaining of my Added Bonus to clear. Used to get really excited about these lump-sum bonuses till I realised that in effect they are only adding a few percent (~5?) to overall rakeback.

Really pleased with my overall mindset. Looking at my 6max graph I can already see a 700 game EV breakeven stretch despite overall EV ROI of 6.6%. If nothing else it demonstrates the strength of will required to grind through all the crap.

Toodleoo, pips.


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Originally posted by Tim64
I realised that in effect they are only adding a few percent (~5?) to overall rakeback.

its more like 1% after MGR hit. but.. free money is free money


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neelton
Joined: 08.12.2008
Oldschool Grinder

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
fwiw tim, i have no doubt in my mind that you are a winner on the 119s. but you can enjoy healthy 2k swings daily in those games.

In what universe is a 2k swong healthy!

Keep crushing them tables Tim! :)


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Great news: I received April's earnings from FT today by Local Bank Transfer (so 8 days total, inc day of initiating and day for receipt). So...
1. it is possible to earn a living playing pker - at least during one month of the year :rolleyes: ;and
2. it is possible actually to cashout your money.

Originally posted by lessthanthreee

Originally posted by Tim64
I realised that in effect they are only adding a few percent (~5?) to overall rakeback.

its more like 1% after MGR hit. but.. free money is free money

Hey <3, if that's right, I think I got my calc wrong on my rakeback blog :( If you get 2 mins, could you take a look?

Tim64's Full-Tilted-Two-Tiered-Ticket-Tourney-Tumble!

@neelton: thanks, buddy.


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I don't think he's right Tim. From my quick calc i think you're getting about 55% rakeback (+points) when clearing that bonus. I'm not 100% sure I calculated it right, but looking at my PT3 numbers playing cash games I was getting around 50% of the rake i payed last month back (while clearing the added bonus).

If you guys need it I can post my calculations.


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

If you guys need it I can post my calculations.

Yes, please - thanks. I have a feeling 55% rakeback is optimistic because of the hit on MGR, however I'm not entirely sure how much the hit is.


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Ok bonus clears at 0.04c/point, therefore 500 points is 20$ of bonus.

500 points is also 50$ of rake in tournaments. So bonus alone is 40% rakeback.

Anything you earn on FT is subtracted from your MGR, so your MGR is 50-20=30$

30$*,27=8,1$

20+8,1=28,1$

28,1/50=0,562=56%

Have I made any mistake? I don't have direct correlation on my PT for points and rake, but by feel last month I got half the rake I payed back, while clearing the bonus.


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Seems convincing :)

I also found this on 2+2:

"I have a $5k black card bonus and I'm wondering what the effective rakeback equivalent is that I'm unlocking it at? Also, does black card ftp point multiplier have any effect with regard to simultaneously earning points? i have 2k rolling score fwiw. "

Response: "You will clear the Black Card bonuses at a 40% dealt rakeback rate. If you have rakeback you will earn approximately 56% in total rakeback, adding 29% to your total. Only base FTPs count towards your bonus clearance. ..."

So... where did I go wrong in my calculations? And, <3, why do you also think its only worth a very small amt of extra R/bk?


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sorry tim, you are right.


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

^^ Groovy.

So, taking a break from the $60s. I'm still a buyin or two above my stoploss but I don't think I'm playing my best game at the moment.

I don't think it's scared money, exactly. Just that somehow I am "awed" by the opposition (even though objectively I don't think I have any reason to be). However, I think that having a slightly bigger bankroll behind me will give me that extra confidence needed. So I will continue to grind the $20s -- $30s in the meantime and try to build up closer to around 120BI for the $60s.

With any luck I will be in a position to take another small shot in two or three weeks and depending on how that goes make a decision on going solo or getting backing.

Just managed to win a nice grind back from a teensy 5bb stack on the bubble to win the HU match up versus a reg. Great feeling, even if I did need a couple of lucky flips and suck out on the way.


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Since I have never embedded anything, I thought there were worse things to Ehm...bed than Katy Perry.

I am such a teenage girl. Absolutely love this song...

Feeling pretty good now I took the pressure off from playing the $60s. Also had a nice idea for how to balance winnings/withdrawals playing STTs. It's definitely not perfect since even EV RoI will vary month-to-month -- sometimes significantly -- but the idea is to withdraw only an amount that is reflected in your EV winrate.

So in a month where you run really well (above EV) you store up $ to be withdrawn in months where you run below EV. If your EV is below $0 then you withdraw nothing, even if you ran really hot. The idea is to encourage you not to be results orientated and just focus on improving your game and your red line.

Don't know if I will actually implement it, but the idea definitely has potential. Running at 9% EV so far this month (18% actual), neither of which are likely sustainable but, at least by focusing on the redline amount, I help keep my feet on the ground.


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Is Katy Perry really a virgin? I find that very hard to believe!


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No, Tim is a Virgin


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

No, Tim is a Virgin

^^ This. And don't let the existence of a daughter fool you. Immaculate conception, etc. ;)

Sick run so far today, 11 BI up (7 BI+ EV). Reg calls me early stages on the BU, 30bb eff deep. Board is 7 high, dry. I cbet my set of fives. He shoves over the top for 3x pot with 99. Kinda horrid play, imo. Like I'm ever calling there with overs. In which case his best case scenario is I call with 88...


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stevegold87
Joined: 18.06.2009
PokerStrategist

weee fireworks boobs.


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tim... im searching for an emoticon to express my disappointment @ your first youtube embed. but i cant find one that truly fits..

:facepalm:

this will have to do

[edit]

I have this WEIRD obsession with making sure all my grammar is perfect when I talk to you... I know how you like that.


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jmackenzie
Joined: 04.06.2008
Elite Grinder

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
tim... im searching for an emoticon to express my disappointment @ your first youtube embed. but i cant find one that truly fits..

:facepalm:

this will have to do


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Tim64 Topic starter
Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008
BlackMember

Originally posted by lessthanthreee
tim... im searching for an emoticon to express my disappointment @ your first youtube embed. but i cant find one that truly fits..

:facepalm:

this will have to do

[edit]

I have this WEIRD obsession with making sure all my grammar is perfect when I talk to you... I know how you like that.

Apostrophe required in "cant". Capital letter for "but". Capital "i". "YouTube", rather than 'youtube'. Capital "t" for my first name. Apostrophe required in "im".

Capital for start of next sentence "this... etc". Full stop after "...to do".

Can't think why you have some obsession with perfect grammar around me. Not as if I am a stickler or uptight in any way.

:tongue:


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jbpatzer
Joined: 23.11.2009
Oldschool Grinder
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