Villains range preflop is probably very wide but after he cold call our raise vs the fish we pretty much narrow it down to TP good kickers+ and draws (FDs + JT). Gutshots would be wishful thinking but let trow in some A :club:J, A :club:T in there as well. AQ is about the weakest I give him ever. The range is heavily weighted towards draws and weaker made hands because he did not wanted to go allin on the flop.
Turn is bad because it improves a lot of his draws and on the other hand it looks too scary for one pair type hands. Very questionable if we have 3 streets of value any longer. Problem here if we valuebet is that we may or may not get value from TP, overpair, 2 pair, pair + FD, pair + OESD but we are guaranteed a raise from flushes. Anyway betting seem to have no alternative, because he checks behind most of the weaker hands. Sizing is interesting because we want to get called and we have to protect at the same time vs backdoored FDs and gutshots. Folding to a raise here make sense (not in my arsenal though
) C/c and c/r make no sense to me with no info on villain and generaly vs his range. After getting called our suspicion about him having mostly the weaker part of the range is confirmed.
After the river comes blank we are playing vs one pair with busted draw, 2 pairs, AT nut straight with busted FD, busted JT and slowplayed stuff. We are ahead vs the range but its hard to get value from worse. Still he has a bit more top pair/overpair/ 2 pair that can call then busted draws (only JT) or pair + busted draw (A :club:J, A :club:Q) that may eventually turn into bluff if we check. That should make betting river better than c/c. If raised we are always beat I think so our sizing should target the weak made hands and leave us out of the stupid spot to have to fold vs river raise with 30-40$ behind.