Prediction: Polk vs Negreanu won't happen
As much as poker fans want to see it, Barry Carter thinks it will be a mammoth task to get both men to work out the details of their match.
It is probably fair to say that many of you have already made side bets on the great Negreanu vs Polk showdown. PokerShares already have a betting market on it, with Polk installed as the big favourite.
I was recently a guest on the panel show The Orbit with our good friend Patrick Leonard (watch out for that later this week) and Pads made a very good case for why the match itself is probably going to be very boring. 10-25,000 hands of online poker actually takes a long time and unless the quality of the poker is great, it won’t live up to the hype caused by the drama between the two.
It led me to try and go one better, I actually suggested that the value bet would probably be the match never taking place. If I had to make a prediction, I don’t think this match will happen even if both men are currently keen.
Hard to find a place to play
The first reason being that it might be quite hard for both players to be in a location where they can play poker at the same time. Ironically playing each other online will be much harder to arrange than a live poker match.
Negreanu is currently in Mexico until September and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that a lockdown could happen while he is there and he be stuck for a while. It is hard enough playing somebody from a different State in the US, but being in a different country is near impossible.
The logical move would be for both men to play online in Nevada where WSOP.com is the only realistic legal option. However, that is a site Negreanu famously has had a problem with. Polk has been getting practice in at ACR and it even seems like he could have a rake free table set up for this match with them. But ACR are not a regulated online poker site and I suspect Negreanu might rightly dismiss that as an option because it sends out a bad message as an ambassador of an online poker room.
No doubt Negreanu’s preferred choice would be his own site GGPoker, which would require both men to travel outside of the States to play. Not only might Polk not want to travel to play, more likely he may not want to play on the site where Negreanu holds weight behind the scenes. I would expect Polk to make some concessions when it comes to where to play, after all it was he who issued the challenge and on paper this could be a very profitable endeavour for him.
Too heated to discuss the small details?
Right now Negreanu is in Mexico until September playing the online WSOP, something he has a lot interest in. Not only has he booked a lot of bracelet bets, no doubt he played a big part in getting the WSOP to take place at GGPoker. It understandably is important that the series goes well for him and his sponsor. As this tweet exchange suggests, while Polk is keen to get details committed, Negreanu has other things on his mind:
Things to do while you wait:
1. Find a hobby
2. Make dinner for your significant other
3. Take a long walk
4. Practice poker
5. Watch a movie
6. Read a book
7. Twiddle your thumbsIn the meantime, I’ll be grinding @GGPokerOfficial WSOP.
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) August 9, 2020
Which brings me to the main reason I think Polk vs Negreanu will not happen, and that is I cannot see either men cooperating enough to even get the match details agreed. You can see that Polk suspects his opponent will be a no show and Negreanu clearly has more important things to do.
The longer it goes without details confirmed the more likely it will just revert to name calling and mud raking, eventually going off the rails. Negreanu has already indicated that he doesn’t care about this match as much as many of his fans do. Polk is clearly very motivated to play Negreanu, but has shown low motivation to play poker generally, so he could also lose interest if it gets to September and he feels he is being stalled.
So sorry poker fans, I think if the details of this match do not get confirmed before the end of the WSOP, I think this one might amount to a whole load of nothing. I now look forward to pressing 'publish' on this article 2 minutes before they announce the full details of their match....
Will Polk vs Negreanu happen? Let us know in the comments:
