Has Phil Ivey lost his online edge?
After his third big losing year in a row, has the former biggest recorded winner online been overtaken at the high stakes?
At the start of 2015 I made a bold prediction that Phil Ivey would be the biggest tracked online losing player at the high stakes tables. Generally speaking betting against Ivey in this way would be like betting that Chelsea would get relegated, but surprisingly plenty of people agreed with me.
With the absence of Gus Hansen last year at the online felt, it has really exposed just how bad things have gotten for the former biggest winner ever online. He lost $3,732,072 in 2015, and also dropped $2,372,298 in 2014 and $2,441,773 in 2013.
Despite all this, he is still widely regarded as the best overall player in the world. His live ability, his proficiency in every format and his previous record online all seem to be enough to keep that reputation intact despite such a obvious blind spot.
Small leaks are huge at the nosebleeds
Although very few of us even come close to knowing the inner workings of a poker mind like his, it doesn't take a genius to know that Ivey's great talents are at the live table. Like perhaps Phil Hellmuth or Daniel Negreanu, there may be certain technical shortcomings in their game, but their ability to read other people, situations, game dynamics and also their own table image are so strong, for the most part it doesn't matter if their bet sizing or ranges are not entirely optimal. A bit like a boxer with a weak defence but a knockout punch, they usually can impose their sheer will on the game to great effect.
Online poker, therefore, is perhaps too alien a game for Ivey's skillset. Like a boxer who turns to MMA, there might be simply too much of what he isn't good at, and not enough of what he excels at, for him to thrive. He has previously mentioned he doesn't use software, or know how to do an EV calculation. He might not be as up-to-date with online poker culture to necessarily know all of the screen names he is facing to get a read comparable to the one he would enjoy live.
In a game of small edges, little things like this become massive.
Then of course you have to respect the sheer ability and work ethic of the top online players today. The nosebleed games online are probably the toughest games in poker and the guys who beat them consistently are not going to be intimidated by anyone, not even the great Phil Ivey.
It always comes back to game selection
More than anything, however, this simply proves the importance of game selection. Despite these losses in recent years, Ivey still probably is one of the better online players in the world. His pre-Black Friday Full Tilt account is up $19,242,744, after all.
He would probably beat up $25/$50 and it is not like the nosebleed regulars are queuing up to play him the way they did Gus Hansen (Who also probably would be a big winning online player if he dropped down and game selected well).
There is an old maxim in poker that if the 9th worst player in the world sat at a table with the eight worst players, they would be a big winner. Likewise if the 9th best player in the world sat down with the eight best, they would be a massive loser. Phil Ivey is still one of the best online poker players in the world, it just so happens that he has chosen to play with the small group of online players who are currently better than him.
Is Ivey still a profitable online player, just not in the biggest games? Let us know in the comments.
