Bets
Why do you make a bet? This question seems to be trivial and easy to answer. But do you really know it? This essay will show you the reasons.
by Ghostmaster
In the last weeks, I surveyed some hands, and it came to my attention that a lot of players don’t think about the intentions of why they are making their bets.
A lot of the time, types of bets were learned by heart, and internalized without any further thought.
So today, I want to treat different kinds of bets:
A) The value bet
Preflop: Hero is CO with 
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, Hero raises $0.50, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.15) 
(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP3 calls $ 0.80
Turn: ($2.75) 
(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $2.25, MP3 calls $2.25.
The value bet is our most important bet, because we force our opponent into making a –EV decision.
We place this kind of bet when, on average, we’re ahead against the probable range of cards from our opponents, and can reasonably assume that he will call another bet with a big part of his range. This implies that he calls with worse hands than ours.
We give Villain the following range on the turn after his call on the flop:
A7o/s+, 45s, 33, 66, Flush draw
Board:
equity win tie pots won pots tied:
Hand 0: 70.739% 66.05% 04.69% 1860 132.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 29.261% 24.57% 04.69% 692 132.00 { 66, 33, A7s+, QdJd, 9d8d, 54s, A7o+ }
Grossly speaking, this means the following from a mathematical perspective:
On the turn, the pot is 2.75$ before our bet. Villain has about ~30% pot equity (0.3 * $ 2.75 = $ 0.825) and we have the remaining 70% (0.7 * $2.75 = $ 1.925).
We bet $2.25 and we assume that Villain calls.
- Our gross EV at this point is: 0.7 * (2 * $2.25) + $2.75 = $5.9
- Our net EV (profit) at this point is: $5.9 - $2.75 = + $3.15
- The EV for a bet, when one opponent calls, is therefore $3.15
- Assume that Villain folds on the turn. We then win the $2.75 pot immediately, and therefore, we made a net profit of $2.75.
A bet followed by a call from our opponents therefore has a higher EV, when the pot is won on the turn.
This example is of course assuming that the holdings of our opponent is highly idealized, and doesn’t always reflect the reality. I solely use it to clarify the concept of the value bet.
Remark:
Let’s calculate Villains EV for this example:
- His gross profit expectation is $5.9 * 03 = $1.77
- His net profit expectation is: $1.77 - $2.75 = -$0.98
He “invests” $2.75, to lose $0.98. An unprofitable deal for Villain, and obviously our long term profit comes exactly from these kinds of moves.
B) The protection bet
Preflop: Hero is CO with 
.
5 folds, Hero raises $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.95) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80,.
Turn: ($2.55) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.80,
A protection bet is a bet that we make when we have a hand, and when our opponent presumably has a drawing hand (therefore, no made hand) which might improve to a winning hand.
We therefore let our opponent pay an expensive price, to make sure we protect our hand.
We once again idealize our opponents range by giving him the open-ended straight draw with 87 or a flush draw (e.g. 
)
Board:
equity win tie pots won pots tiedHand 0: 78.283% 78.28% 00.00% 310 0.00 { 8d8s }
Hand 1: 21.717% 21.72% 00.00% 86 0.00 { QcJc, 87s, 87o }
Just like in the previous hand, we can calculate our EV, by calculating our gross EV and from there deduct our net EV.
- Gross EV: ($1.8*2 + $2.55) * 0.78 = $6.15 * 0.78 =~ $ 4.8
- Net EV: $4.8 - $ 1.8 = $3.
- So on average, we win $3 by betting $1.8.
- If Villain folds (for whatever reason), then again our net EV is the size of the pot before our bet. In this case, we win $2.55. We also win $0.45 more if Villain calls.
To clarify the systematics of a protection bet further, we repeat the example, but we’re betting potsize this time.
Turn: ($2.55) (2 players)
Hero bets $2.55,
- Gross EV: $7.65 * 0.78 = $5.97
- Net EV: $5.97 - $2.55 = $3.42
Thus, the bigger we bet against the draws while Villain is willing to call this bet, the higher our EV is against him.
In other words, we find that the protection bet in its true sense is actually a valuebet.
C) The bluffbet
The bluffbet is bet that we make, when we assume that we can force opponents to fold a better hand. There are 3 known scenario’s where this bet is used.
i) Continuation bet
Preflop: Hero is BB with 
6 folds, CO raises to 0.4, 2 folds, Hero raises to 1.4, CO calls $0.8
Flop: ($2.85) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $2.00, ...
Idealized assumptions:
- Villains calling range in a blind battle is AT+,KQ+,TT+
- Villain only continues with a hand after the flop if he has a monster or TPTK, and folds all other hands
In the articles about continuation bets, we can read the following:
- 1/2 pot bet: the bet must be profitable 34% of the time, to be +EV.
- 3/4 pot bet: the bet must be profitable 41% of the time, to be +EV.
- Potsize bet: the bet must be profitable 51% of the time, to be +EV
In this example, we can’t refer to equity directly anymore, therefore we have to calculate the card combinations that CO would fold/call.
Call combinations:
Every pocket pair has 6 possible combinations (e.g. TT => ThTd, ThTc, ThTs, TdTc, TdTs, TcTs) -> therefore, with Tens, Queens and Kings = 3*6 = 18 possible combinations.
Since we have a Jack and an Ace ourselves, our opponent of course can’t have these cards anymore. -> 3 combinations Jacks and 3 combinations Aces = 6 possible combinations.
So there are 24 possible combinations that our opponent continues to play after a continuation bet.
Fold combinations:
- AT -> 12 combinations
- AJ -> 9 remaining combinations
- AQ -> 12 combinations
- KQ -> 16 combinations
» 49 possible combinations, that our opponent folds after a continuation bet.
=> 24 + 49 = 73
- 24/73 = 33% of the time, our opponent continues with the hand.
- 49/73 = 67% of the time, our opponent folds.
As our opponent also folds hands like AQ and AK after our continuation bet, our move is profitable when we calculate the circumstances of the continuation bet.
Since we win the pot with a bet in 67% of the cases, we make a huge earning, even when we make a pot sized bet. (The precise EV calculation would take us outside the purpose of this article and is present in the continuation bet articles, which can be found in our strategy section).
ii) The semi bluff
Preflop: Hero is BU with 
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30.
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
BB bets $0.60, Hero raises to $1.80,
We make a semi bluff when we don’t have a made hand yet, though cards on later streets could still help us and the probability exists that our opponents folds a better hand.
Assume that our opponent here has 77 and he thinks that we, as a preflop aggressor, have hit this flop very often. Since he can’t play check/raise or check/call, as a lot of overcards can break his hand, he chooses to make a simple donkbet.
(This opponent would play sets and draws the same way)
When we raise the flop here, our opponent has to assume that, on average, our hand is stronger than his. Therefore, he must fold. Even when our opponent has a hand like KQ, there would still be the possibility he will face a difficult decision on the turn.
He doesn’t know of course, whether or not we would check behind on the turn with our draw. Certainly he has to take account for the fact that he might still have to pay 2 bets until the river. Hence, he will consider whether or not he should lay down his hand on the flop, or to continue here with a medium-strength hand.
This example points out once again how important position is in NL Hold’em.
iii) Pure bluff
Since we rarely end up in a situation where a pure bluff is appropriate, I treat the matter only briefly. For example, we had a draw on the flop with 78, but missed, and now we are on the river, shortly before showdown. As we don’t have any showdown value with 78 and assume that our opponent folds his hand 50% of the time against a riverbet, we decide to bet 2/3 pot, to have at least a chance to win the pot (therefore, the same principle as a continuation bet).
Summarized, we have a hand without any value, but the possibility exists that we can get better hands from our opponents to fold (e.g. Ace high or King high) -> Bluff bet.
D) Dark Tunnel Bet
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 6 folds, BB calls $0.30.
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
BB bets $0.55, Hero ?????
Assume that we raise here. Which purpose does this raise serve? When Villain has an Ace, then he’s not going to fold.
When Villain has a worse hand than KK, then he will probably fold.
Therefore, if we raise, it’s not for value, not for bluffing purposes, and not for protection either. We would raise for information, to know where we stand in the hand.
This doesn’t make much sense, since we can obtain this information in other ways. If we call the flop, we let worse hands bluff again on the turn or river and we lose the minimum against an Ace.
If Villain relentlessly fires 3 bets, then we can easily assume that we’re behind most of the time.
| Conclusion | |
| For every active move (bet/raise), we have to reflect whether or not this move serves an actual purpose. If we can’t think of one, then we have to turn to alternatives. But before you start betting Small hands -> small pots |
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