Size matters!

You've been called on the flop and turn and now hold the nuts on the river. When going for the check-raise, how big should you bet?

You're in the SB with KJo at a NL200 table, and open raise to $6. Your opponent, a TAG who defends his big blind with 9% 3-bets and 42% calls and folds 38% to c-bets with a WTSD of 28%, calls. He then calls your $8 c-bet and $20 double barrel before we reach the river:

What do you think about a check-raise on the river and its sizing? With KJ you have a value bet and the only question is how to get as much money as possible into the pot. In theory it is an easy equity calculation:

These hands are at least a part of your opponents value range. His bluffs do not play a role when considering your bet sizing. With the help of combos and card removal you can find out that he is betting with a jack less than 25% of the time and has trips or better more than 75% of the time.

About 15% of the time, he is holding a full house. This knowledge leads you to the important question that even pros could not answer easily: how much will Kx and QT call?

Who is right?

Michael	Don Vito	Kay
I like a check-raise to ~$120. I think if I raise more, I won´t get any calls from Kx and QT. The reason is that villain does not expect me to have a bluff if I raise bigger and he could find a hero fold. CHECK-RAISE TO ~$120	I think that regulars are very suspicious in SB v BB hands; I would go with a big check-raise to $172. If I am not perceived as very tight I don´t see a standard regular folding Kx or QT in this situation. BIG CHECK-RAISE	I don't like the check-raise here. He would not call Jx and he would raise his strong hands (like Kx or QT) against half-pot bet anyway. That helps us to win more money with a 3-bet. BET INSTEAD
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