Can you trust your HUD stats on this river?
We have some reads based on our opponent's stats to make a good call with our decent holding. But can we really trust anything at NL50?
Back at NL50, we isolate an MP limper with a strong hand. The limper looks like a recreational player with 34/8 for VPIP/PFR over a big sample, he also has a medium-sized stack. Let's see if we can catch anything in these murky waters...
Our Hero doesn't have much in terms of value on this flop, and we could also argue against c-betting. Still, we're in position against our opponent who has checked, plus the board is not really connected. Looks like we can c-bet against underpairs and other hands that may have completely missed it. We also have a value bet against some draws.
The turn card gives us a gutshot in addition to our top-pair outs, and the Villain shows weakness again by checking. Hero sees no reason for another barrel, so he decides to mirror his opponent's moves for now.
Let's have a look at his stats, considering we have a decent sample to draw our conclusions from. From what we know, his limp/fold preflop stat is 50%. He wins often after seeing flop but rarely gets to showdown, and if he does he often loses. This means he wins most of his pots before showdown, i.e. he likes to bluff.
The fact that he checked again on the turn makes his river range polarised. It's unlikely for him to turn his weak showdown value into bluff, so it's either two-pair+ or busted draws. We hit our top pair and then we face a pot-sized bet from the Villain. Sure, our hand looks like a good bluff catcher, but is it really?
It's a tough decision for our Hero, so maybe you could help him out? We keep it simple this time: call or fold? You can rely on provided stats in general or have your own way to analyse this spot. Anyway, don't forget to vote and share your thoughts in the comments section!
Previous poll's results
Last time we were trying to find a proper street to fold our (un)lucky AQ hand. Turns out, any street is good enough to fold. The price is what matters though.
Most of you voted for the flop fold, other options varied but we are generally in favor of less costly actions. Some players didn't want to give up at all. The truth is, our Hero had a bad start preflop, and he could have played any street differently.
We deliberately left something out though. We mentioned that the Villain's 3-bet against a BU raise was 17% over a good sample. But this stat only works when dealing with Button raises first in, not with limpers before him. So we're not playing against a resteal range but against much stronger one. Even if the range is a bit wider (say, about 5%) our hand is still not good enough against it, especially if we hit a Queen postflop and the Villain keeps barreling.
The above means we have a good reason to give up preflop. And if we were not convinced up to that point, the turn would be the right spot to abandon our hopes. Calling pretty much commits us to the pot, and it's just not worth it to pay so much to a tight player. Better keep our 70 bb and move on.
