What is a stack worth at the Main Event final table?
Barry Carter looks at what the ICM values are for the final ten players in the Main Event, which plays down to a winner this weekend.
Last night the final table bubble for the WSOP Main Event was so intense it stalled to a grinding halt. After 17 hours of play the game was paused and for the first time ever the televised finale tomorrow will feature the unofficial final table of 10, rather than the official final table of nine.
The final table bubble is when ICM is often the most extreme and as such you will see a lot of tight folds and aggressive chip leaders putting themselves in a position to win the whole thing. The reason for this is because all of the equity is at the final table itself, once you get there every pay jump is a life-changing amount.
Last year I wrote a piece about the ICM of the final table that was quite widely shared so I wanted to do it again. Final tables are where some players learn about ICM for the first time and what better place than the Main Event itself to highlight the nuances of the Independent Chip Model.
Below is a table with the finalists, their chips, what their potential prize would be if they finished in the position they are currently in and what the ICM value of their stack is currently worth (rounded up) if they took a deal now. You can do this yourself for free at ICMIZER.
| Position | Player | Chips | Potential Prize | ICM Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Matthew Su | 83,200,000 | $10,000,000 | $4,100,572 |
| 2nd | Epsen Jorstad | 83,200,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,100,572 |
| 3rd | Matija Dobric | 68,650,000 | $4,000,000 | $3,692,496 |
| 4th | Aaron Duczak | 56,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,295,465 |
| 5th | John Eames | 54,950,000 | $2,250,000 | $3,260,438 |
| 6th | Adrian Attenborough | 50,800,000 | $1,750,000 | $3,118,525 |
| 7th | Michael Duek | 49,775,000 | $1,350,000 | $3,082,584 |
| 8th | Jeffrey Farnes | 35,350,000 | $1,075,000 | $2,533,675 |
| 9th | Asher Conniff | 29,400,000 | $850,675 | $2,279,433 |
| 10th | Philippe Souki | 13,500,000 | $675,000 | $1,486,911 |
Matthew Su and Epsen Jorstad have the same chip stack, so they have the same ICM value. The top prize is $10 million but the biggest ICM value is just $4,100,575. This often surprises people, just how low the chip leader's stack is in ICM equity.
That seems low, but in ICM terms these two players only win the Main Event 15.8% of the time each based on the fact that is their proportion of the remaining chips. In fact, this year's final table is really close, there is usually one huge chip leader but this year there isn't. As such there is only $1 million between 7th and 1st place in terms of equity.
One of the limits of ICM is that it does not account for skill at all, it is only based on chips. This year that probably makes sense because it seems like we have nine super solid players and the edges between them are likely small. The ICM values are, therefore, perhaps as accurate as they will ever be.
The other thing that surprises a lot of players is just how valuable the short stack is. Philippe Souki has only 2.5% of the chips in play and 1/6th of the chips of the chip leaders, but his ICM value is $1,486,911, which is less than three times the value of the chip leader.
Souki has already locked up $675,000 and his ICM value is more than 6th place. From his perspective he only has upside, he can more than 10x his guaranteed payout, so if a deal were proposed he would need something significant to lock up a big payday when an even bigger one is staring at him. Anything can happen at the final table with just nine players standing in your way.
We won't see a deal, on screen at least, because the WSOP prohibits them, but they have taken place privately in the Main Event. Given the field is so talented I suspect most players at the final table would be happy to lock up their ICM value if they got the chance, even though all of them are well under half the Main Event first prize.
How much would you deal for as the chip leader? Let us know in the comments:
