Why the GGPoker Last Longer feature is +EV
A great way to invest more money in a stake level where you have a big edge, the rake free Last Longer bets are a no-brainer!
Last week GGPoker launched the first of many new 'Prop Bet' features. The Last Longer Prop Bet is for MTTs and it is an additional side bet amongst a smaller group of players for a specific tournament.
You can create a Winner Takes All last longer bet or a standard payout structure based on finish positions that would mirror that of the target tournament.
The prop bet can be as little as 10% of a buy-in and as much as 200% of the buy-in of the target tournament.
Most importantly, the Last Longer bets are completely rake free!
Rake-free makes this +EV
It's the rake-free element that makes this new format so exciting. Recreational players can enjoy it as a pure gamble, but serious players should consider making the most of it to boost their EV.
Most GGPoker fields are large and, therefore, have high variance, but entering a 20-player Last Longer in a 1,000-runner field is a great way to reduce variance. You can scoop a mini tournament prize just for mincashing, if you beat the other mincashers.
More importantly, they are a serious consideration for any winning player. If, for example, you have a 40% edge in $10 MTTs and a 20% edge in $20 MTTs, the Last Longer is a good way to invest more money in the games you have the biggest edge in. It's a good alternative to moving up in stakes, you get to invest more rake-free money in the games you have the bigger edge.
It also reduces your effective rake, if you have $30 invested in one tournament between buy-in and Last Longer bets, the rake is only $0.80 from the initial buy-in. That makes the rake on $30 of buy-ins is only 2.67% instead of 8%.
Time will tell, however, if the Last Longer is more for regs or casual players. It could be the Last Longers are tougher, on a player-by-player basis, but my suspicion is it will be enjoyed by all parties.
No Late Registration, but...
The big consideration about the Last Longer feature is that you need to register from the start of the MTT. This is perhaps designed to decrease overlays by making everyone show up early to the tournament.
If you have followed my writing at all, you'll know that late registration is very profitable. The question is whether the effective rake reduction and investment of more money into a softer format is worth missing out on the equity boost of late registration. I think that will depend on how soft the Last Longer fields are and how popular this Prop Bet feature is.
You can also do Last Longers on Day 2 of tournaments. This gets rid of the when-to-register issue and also the stacks are varied. If you have a lot of endgame experience and a big stack, it seems like a no-brainer to do last longers on Day 2.
One format where I think they should be considered is PKO tournaments. Late registration is a bad idea in PKOs because you don't want to miss any bounties. PKOs are high variance, you will bust early a lot, but a good player will also win them more often. Therefore the Winner-Takes-All variant of the Last Longer bet might be profitable.
Once again, it's the fact this feature is rake free which is what should be exciting to grinders. If you register on time anyway, this is a great way to reduce variance and invest more money in your edge at smaller stakes.
Have you done a Last Longer yet? Let us know in the comments:
