How to adjust to top heavy payout structures
With the news that the WSOP Main Event has a very steep payout structure we use Hold'em Resources Calculator to look at the strategic adjustments.
This week all the talk has been about the WSOP Main Event payout structure, which most players believe is needlessly steep. In order to break the first prize record they have made the jump between 1st and 2nd place huge.
It looks like there isn't going to be a last-minute change of heart from the WSOP, so for the players still in the Big One and the nerds back at home, let's look at the strategic differences with a steeper payout structure.
Below are the payouts for the 2023 Main Event final 10 players, and next to it is what it would look like if they used the same payout structure as they did for this year's Millionaire Maker. That seemed the right sort of event to compare it to, it was a large-field bucket list event aimed at amateur players. This year's Millionaire Maker was big enough that it made two millionaires, so they had no reason to tinker with the prize pool.
| Position | 2023 Payout | MM Structure |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | $12,100,000 | $8,770,902 |
| 2nd | $6,500,000 | $7,325,514 |
| 3rd | $4,000,000 | $4,745,144 |
| 4th | $3,000,000 | $3,658,414 |
| 5th | $2,400,000 | $2,726,565 |
| 6th | $1,850,000 | $2,098,787 |
| 7th | $1,425,000 | $1,625,972 |
| 8th | $1,125,000 | $1,267,811 |
| 9th | $900,000 | $994,946 |
| 10th | $700,000 | $785,945 |
To highlight the strategic differences first we need a final table, so I picked out last year's Main Event final table. This was technically the unofficial final table but because play went on so long, they made it 10-handed for the finale.
| Seat | Player | Country | Chip Count | Big Blinds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philippe Souki | United Kingdom | 13,500,000 | 11 |
| 2 | Adrian Attenborough | Australia | 50,800,000 | 42 |
| 3 | Matija Dobric | Croatia | 68,650,000 | 57 |
| 4 | Michael Duek | United States | 49,775,000 | 41 |
| 5 | Matthew Su | United States | 83,200,000 | 69 |
| 6 | John Eames | United Kingdom | 54,950,000 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeffrey Farnes | United States | 35,350,000 | 29 |
| 8 | Aaron Duczak | Canada | 56,000,000 | 47 |
| 9 | Espen Jorstad | Norway | 83,200,000 | 69 |
| 10 | Asher Conniff | United States | 24,400,000 | 20 |
I used Holdem Resources Calculator to work out the Bubble Factors and Risk Premiums if this final table used each payout structure. You don't need to be an expert on either of these, the cliff note is that the higher the Bubble Factor (the main number below) or Risk Premiums (the percentage below the number), the tighter your range should be to call an all-in and the more ICM pressure you can exert.
Using the Millionaire Maker payout structure, this is what each player's Bubble Factor would be against each other:
UTG (Souki) has the lowest Bubble Factors and you can see them mostly green. This is because they have the shortest stack, they need to play looser to get back into the mix. The highest Bubble Factor is when Espen Jorstad and Matthew Su tangle. They both have the biggest stacks of 69BBs each. It would be a disaster for them to get all-in against each other, equity-wise.
These are the Bubble Factors for the actual payout structure being used:
Don't focus on the minutiae, instead look at the broad differences. The numbers are lower across the board. We are seeing more green squares indicating low Bubble Factors, meaning play should closer to ChipEV, and much less red, which signifies ICM pressure. If all the stacks were the same the average Bubble Factor in the Millionaire Maker structure would be 1.68, the average Bubble Factor in the actual payout structure would be 1.51.
What this shows us is that everyone should be playing much looser with the current payout structure. This corrects a common misconception about ICM. They see a big pay jump near the top of the payouts and assume the adjustment is to play tighter when in actuality everyone should be playing for the win. When payout structures are steep, it's more important to play for the biggest prize and not worry about laddering,
The problem is that we have seven-figure payouts and life-changing money with every ladder. The reality is most players won't be following this advice, even if they are aware it's the right thing to do. The real-life value of the money and the once-in-a-lifetime nature of the WSOP Main Event turns traditional strategy on its head.
Do you prefer the Millionaire Maker structure? Let us know in the comments:
