What to do when a dealer exposes a card
Should you change you preflop strategy when a dealer error reveals one of the cards you were hoping to hit?
The dealer accidentally exposes a card, then you look down at your hole cards, and one of them is the same rank as the exposed card.
A lot of players assume that makes their hand unplayable, especially when it is one where a lot of the equity comes from making a pair.
If you look down at KJs and the dealer exposes a King, your hand doesn't look quite as pretty any more.
I actually ran some numbers on this.
Equity changes when a card is exposed
When a King has been exposed:
- KJs loses about 3% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 2% against two strong ranges. It loses about 2.5% against wide ranges.
- KK loses about 2.5% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 1.5% against two strong ranges. It loses about 2% against wide ranges.
- JJ gains about 1.25% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 2% against two strong ranges. It gains about 1% against wide ranges.
- AQo gains about 1.25% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 1.5% against two strong ranges. It gains about 0.5% against wide ranges.
When an Ace has been exposed:
- KJs gains about 2.5% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 2.75% against two strong ranges. It gains about 1.5% against wide ranges.
- KK gains about 4.5% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 4% against two strong ranges. It gains about 1.5% against wide ranges.
- JJ gains about 3.5% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 2.5% against two strong ranges. It gains about 1% against wide ranges.
- AQo loses about 3.75% equity against a strong range (top 15%), and 2.5% against two strong ranges. It loses about 2.5% against wide ranges.
So it looks like a key card being exposed does not make as big a difference as most people think.
Remember, your hand always has lots of different types of equity. Some of it comes from making pairs or sets, some of it comes from making straights and flushes, and some of it comes from making people fold.
If it's a strong hand preflop, it's usually still a strong hand when it's missing an out.
You can get Dara's free book on effective poker study by joining his mailing list.
