Betting odds for the Oscars
Sinners may have received 16 nominations, but the betting odds suggest it will be a disappointing night for the cast and crew.
The Oscars were announced yesterday, so naturally, the gambling world has taken a look at the nominees to decide the odds on who will win.
In a record for the awards, Sinners has received 16 nominations, breaking the joint record held by Titanic, La La Land and All About Eve, all of which have 14 nominations each.
However, it looks like Sinners might miss out on some of the most coveted awards, as the combined odds from Oddschecker, which is a useful bellwether for the way these will go, suggest it is not the favourite in most categories.
Best Movie, for example, looks heavily weighted towards One Battle After Another, which is currently 1/5 with all the major European-facing sportsbooks, suggesting it has an 83.33% chance of winning. Sinners is 2nd at 6/1.
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | 1/5 | 83.33% |
| Sinners | 6/1 | 14.29% |
| Hamnet | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Marty Supreme | 17/1 | 5.56% |
| Bugonia | 66/1 | 1.49% |
| Frankenstein | 50/1 | 1.96% |
| Sentimental Value | 45/1 | 2.17% |
| Train Dreams | 58/1 | 1.69% |
| The Secret Agent | 80/1 | 1.23% |
| F1 | 100/1 | 0.99% |
Timothee Chalamet has the same 1/5 odds to win Best Actor for Marty Supreme, while Michael B Jordan is a 16/1 longshot for his Sinners portrayal of twins.
| Actor / Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme | 1/5 | 83.33% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another | 5/1 | 16.67% |
| Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Michael B. Jordan – Sinners | 16/1 | 5.88% |
| Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon | 20/1 | 4.76% |
Hamnet actress Jesie Buckley is about as big a favourite as you could imagine, a 1/16 frontrunner, suggesting she is 94.12% to win best actress.
| Actor / Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley – Hamnet | 1/16 | 94.12% |
| Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value | 18/1 | 5.26% |
| Emma Stone – Bugonia | 22/1 | 4.35% |
| Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue | 25/1 | 3.85% |
Again, it looks like One Battle After Another will pick up the most coveted Oscars, as its director, Paul Thomas Anderson, looks to be a 95.24% favourite to pick up the gong.
| Director / Film | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another | 1/20 | 95.24% |
| Ryan Coogler – Sinners | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Chloé Zhao – Hamnet | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme | 25/1 | 3.85% |
| Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value | 33/1 | 2.94% |
In related poker news, poker player and actress Arden Cho has performed in an Oscar-nominated movie. K-Pop Demon Hunters is up for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song, and Cho voiced the lead character Rumi. She will join Jennifer Tilly as an Oscar-nominated poker player. Poker movie Molly's Game has also been nominated for an Oscar.
