[Closed] 200NL - QJo on J37ss vs raise oop

Hi,

tough one, because of his high raise contibet value.
But I wouldn't mind a fold oop.
Reasons: Player looks kinda competent according to his stats. Therefore it will be very hard for you to come to showdown if you call on flop with your marginal hand.

Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin

bierbaer, what you think buddy?

Originally posted by VEGAStoMAINZ86
bierbaer, what you think buddy?

Ah sorry, I'm always evaluating the hands bottom up. So if you post a hand and someone posts his opinion the thread goes to the top and it takes more time until I get to it.

Anyway, here are my thoughts:
If I call the flop I do so because I think he's (semi)bluffing often enough to make it +EV.
So once I do call the flop folding the turn would be spew (obv), therefore I probably go for a c/r on the turn if it's a non- :heart:.
On a heart turn I'd probably just c/f.

However, folding the flop is my preferred play against an unknown.
First of all he has to have quite a few bluffs to make calling and c/raising the turn +EV and he does not only have good equity with his draws but I think he could also show up with hands like KJ, AJ, JJ+.
So calling OOP and c/raising gets even more marginal.
This is how we do against a range of half the combinations of JJ+, half the combinations of AJ and KJ and a ton of FDs:
Board: Jh 7c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.786% 65.50% 00.28% 22048 95.50 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKs, QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JcJh, JcJs, JdJs, AJs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJs, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AdJc, AhJc, AhJd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KdJc, KhJc, KhJd, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh }
Hand 1: 34.214% 33.93% 00.28% 11421 95.50 { QsJc }

Doesn't look too good.