AA oop deep

According to the "baluga theorem", u played right.
But, I m thinking... just 88 and JJ beats u. Do u think he ll play these hands this fast ott? with no need to worry about flushes or straights?

I don't believe villain has many 8x hands in his range. He can do this with JJ,QQ,KK? Maybe AJ, villain looks fishy? In this case I would consider calling.

I can clearly see him doing this w overpairs (where he is way behind) than w nutty hands.

villain is 45/20 ie station pre ... he can have so many 8x hands pre that deep
89s, 8Ts, 78s, A8s

with 45 VPIP if it looks pretty he will call you!

good fold OTT , I think

Originally posted by thazar
villain is 45/20 ie station pre ... he can have so many 8x hands pre that deep
89s, 8Ts, 78s, A8s

with 45 VPIP if it looks pretty he will call you!

good fold OTT , I think

the OR was from UTG, and hero did a good, sizeable, 3bet pre. Unless villain is madly loose (wich I dont think we can ensure in 140h), not that many 8x hands on his range, imo.

His range includes only JJ... looking at stats shall we add 22. Hard to fold tbh.

but both villain and hero are deep. Villain seems to be a station pre I dont see him folding any of the hands I have put above
I dont see why 250 bb deep this 45 VPIP villain, when there is 20bb already in the pot would not call 89s, 8Ts, 78s, A8s for an additional 11bb.
I am not saying I would (although i love playing pretty hands deep ♦ ) , but you are restricting villain's range so much at NL5 when he clearly calling everything that looks playable( and possibly more)

Why did you decide to bet so small on the turn?

Originally posted by thazar
but both villain and hero are deep. Villain seems to be a station pre I dont see him folding any of the hands I have put above
I dont see why 250 bb deep this 45 VPIP villain, when there is 20bb already in the pot would not call 89s, 8Ts, 78s, A8s for an additional 11bb.
I am not saying I would (although i love playing pretty hands deep ♦ ) , but you are restricting villain's range so much at NL5 when he clearly calling everything that looks playable( and possibly more)

Just now I realized how deep we are talking about. 276.8 bb effective.
U know what... you convinced me. This deep, these stats pre... all of this together makes those hands possible holds.

With this board, against this villain and beeing deep I would love to see a bigger bet OTT. At least 2$ should do good. Yeah, beeing in position and deep, his range is 8 heavy, but i think he has much more draws in his range. Also, if we bet bigger, he can't get away with a 4$ raise anymore and it becomes easier for us to fold if he raises a decent amount.

Originally posted by kriko92
Why did you decide to bet so small on the turn?

Good question. Not a good move cause this gives good odds for villain if he where on draws.

Originally posted by thazar
villain is 45/20 ie station pre ... he can have so many 8x hands pre that deep
89s, 8Ts, 78s, A8s

with 45 VPIP if it looks pretty he will call you!

good fold OTT , I think

Totally agree with this. Even if not so deep a 45/20 villain will call preflop with a bunch of "funky stuff", and he will have all sorts of 8x.

Originally posted by kriko92
Why did you decide to bet so small on the turn?

To keep all smaller pairs in...
They have 2 outs vs us and will fold vs a heavy bet.

@kriko

yeah as nitrol said, i tried to keep vilains range wide. It is a paired board.

As thazar said, 45/20 has bunch of 8x combos , anything that looks playable as standard. His 3bet is 1.8 lets say he 3bets KK and flats QQ that is all about over pairs here. Main thing i guess is that he is goin to play more honest when he takes this line on a paired board. So imo when he raises 4x ott it more looks like that he is in some awkward way protecting his 8x than that he is building a pot with a fh here. But jj are included ofc. If i face some other opponent i would bet half pot otf and proceed standard sizing ott.

Originally posted by Tinsley15
when he raises 4x ott it more looks like that he is in some awkward way protecting his 8x than that he is building a pot with a fh here. But jj are included ofc. If i face some other opponent i would bet half pot otf and proceed standard sizing ott.

8x seems to be the case more often. FH+ is included too, but its a smaller part of his range (less combos). Althought, because we are are deep, those fh+ can be played w this raise on turn as well, creating a pot to go all in on river.

Really tough fold, but I think you made the right choice. 8x could easily be in his range here, along with JJ or even 22.

Deuces I would not even consider before... but, yes. Playing this deep, totally possible.

Originally posted by Tinsley15
@kriko
yeah as nitrol said, i tried to keep vilains range wide. It is a paired board.

I don't want to keep villain's range wide with my strong hands, I want to win money No need to focus on the bottom of his range when he has plenty of hands that will call a bigger bet. Remember, we're playing against a fish. He has a lot of Jx and draws and also he can call down with his pocket pairs because he doesn't believe you, puts you on AK, or just likes pairs a lot. No need to get scared of 8x before he raises you. I would choose between two options - bet 3$/shove blank river or bet 2$ and bet 5$/fold river if you're scared of him having a strong hand and you think he will be folding too much to the first line. If raised on turn, easy fold.

Easy fold... if you bet reasonably big on the turn. When you bet as small as you did, you are showing a lot of weakness and underrepresent your hand. Maybe this is fine on nl5 but as you move up to nl10 and higher keep in mind that it's really not a good idea to show so much weakness and then fold to a raise (it is good to show weakness to induce raises of course). When you bet so small, he can now valueraise you with worse - AJ/QQ might become the nuts in his eyes. Also he can start bluffing you a ton because you look so weak. Will he? It's nl5 and we have no way to know... Personally I'd close my eyes, call down on blank and hate myself for betting turn like that. I can agree that it should be a fold on nl5 because people are passive, not good enough and so on but I still don't like the line at all. Bet bigger, make more money and make your life easier as a bonus

can we get three streets of value with those sizings? can we get two of them with sizings mentioned above?