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Rivered top 2 v fish

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PacnyTuH0
Joined: 02.05.2007

Villain is 71/27 over 50 hands so not much info.

If I shove river, can I really hope he shows up with worse after he 3bets?

0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

BB: $11.23 (112.3 bb)
MP: $16.52 (165.2 bb)
CO: $9.30 (93 bb)
Hero (BTN): $10 (100 bb)
SB: $7.73 (77.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q♦ T♣
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 2♣ 7♥ 3♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.65) T♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

River: ($1.45) Q♠ (2 players)
BB bets $0.69, Hero raises to $2.20, BB raises to $3.71, Hero ???


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5 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Everything seems promising. Loose player, blind war and two pairs on the relatively dry board, something went wrong tho. You should have thought what worse hands were calling your 2,2 bet. I think there's plenty of them though since hes most likely very lame player, great deal of weaker hands we may get money from.


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JCSeerup
Joined: 14.12.2010

Can you really expect him to show up with better?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Sets are possible.
Can he do that with AQ/KQ?


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Sets are possible.
Can he do that with AQ/KQ?

Doesn't say what room, nor any reads on villain.
He can certainly do that with AQ, maybe with KQ.

But I think that here you must call the 3Bet.
Let's say his range consists entirely of sets and broadway hands with a queen -- not even any bluffs.
Here we are:

Board: 2♣7♥3♠ T♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     66.69%  61.24%   5.45% { QdTc }
BB     33.31%  27.85%   5.45% { QQ, TT, 77, 33-22, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

Even if you leave out all but sets and AQ we're a coin flip:

Board: 2♣7♥3♠ T♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     45.27%  45.27%   0.00% { QdTc }
BB     54.73%  54.73%   0.00% { QQ, TT, 77, 33-22, AQs, AQo }

OTR we're being asked to chuck an additional $1.71 into a pot of 9.27
1.71/9.27 = 18%
We have much better equity than that.
He needs to be bluffing only once in 5 times to break even in this situation.

Disclaimer: I sure hope I did the math right -- please check!;

Cheers,
VS


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If he can do this with AQ/KQ, we are calling then.


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