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EV Tools software for teaching probability theory (expected value, variance)

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jacklie21
Joined: 24.04.2014

Created software for calculating expected value and simulation of random events.
https://evtools.pro/

The software is universal, suitable for poker and trading. While the software is at the beta test stage and only on the web.
Soon there will be a version for windows (desktop, and windows phone), android, linux, apple (mac) and ios.

Now briefly on the settings:

Spoiler

Switch "Downswing Probability" - if you press the simulation or curve, it will show the probability of downswing. The first column is the distance at which this may be a downswing. The second column is when the downswing ends, and leave zero. This is an extreme value, in practice it should be shorter. Profit shows the depth of the downswing in arbitrary units. The probability, the probability of such an event.

The "Curve" button is a downswing curve, shows how much the 68%, 95%, 99.7%, 99.997% of players will max out, and how quickly they will go to 0. To calculate the downswing, I used the Newton - Leibniz formula for a certain integral, and used the formula for F (A) and F (B), and calculated the probability at each point, and then found the difference to calculate the area of ​​the function under the EV line. I do not know how correct. But what pokerdope shows is more than 50% probability, and the formula that is given in the book of "mathematics poker" is controversial, the probability cannot be more than 50%. Because everything obeys the law of normal distribution, 50% will have an EV search, and 50% will have a shortfall.

The deviation RSD (σ) on the expected value tab is a relative deviation in percent; on the contrary, there is a “Loss / EV amount” which is a choice as to what is considered a deviation, i.e. the amount of interest is multiplied by this value. In the first case, when the risk depends, the correlation will be with the risk, and it will show how the probabilities will vary depending on the risk, if the risk increases, then the spread will also increase (ideally to show the difference in trading when the lower the risk the better). The second option shows a more neutral deviation and does not depend on risk.

Commission, this is how much the commission for a single operation is deducted from EV

The Sharpe Ratio shows the ratio of ev (winrate) / to variance, the higher the number, the less our strategy will be dependent on the variance.
Those. for example, if you take the FR and SH tables, they have different variance, you must evaluate the win rate in the discipline and choose the one where the Sharpe ratio will be more! It will save you a lot of time, nerves and money!

Feedback and suggestion for the software are welcome. You can made requests in this thread at forum or in our feedback form. We read only English feedback. https://www.evtools.pro/en/about.html

Russian version: https://evtools.pro/ru/
English version: https://evtools.pro/en/
Language can be changed on the Settings tab.

Light version EV Tools for fast expected value calculation.

Outs converts to win and lose probability.
Win - how often we win
Lose - how often we lose
WinSum - win sum
LoseSum - lose sum
EV - Expected Value.
Odds - Minimum pot odds required for profitability(EV = 0).
Fold % - How many fold equity do we need more (EV = 0), Fold% = Odds - Win.

Mouse wheel change window opacity. Paper pin in title bar make window always on top.

https://www.evtools.pro/files/EVToolsLight1.0.2.zip

Spoiler



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12 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

It is great that we have guys here who want to create this kind of software and help out the community :) I haven't yet tested your software much but it looks great!


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jacklie21
Joined: 24.04.2014

Originally posted by la55i
It is great that we have guys here who want to create this kind of software and help out the community :) I haven't yet tested your software much but it looks great!

Yes, thank you. I want to help people understand probability theory. Very often I see that people do not understand it. I can add any necessary calculations if there are offers.


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jacklie21
Joined: 24.04.2014

Add Light version EV Tools for fast expected value calculation.

Outs converts to win and lose probability.
Win - how often we win
Lose - how often we lose
WinSum - win sum
LoseSum - lose sum
EV - Expected Value.
Odds - Minimum pot odds required for profitability(EV = 0).
Fold % - How many fold equity do we need more (EV = 0), Fold% = Odds - Win.

Mouse wheel change window opacity. Paper pin in title bar make window always on top.



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jacklie21
Joined: 24.04.2014

Update EV Tools Light 1.0.2
- Better conversion outs to win%
- Now minimum pot odds calculate require only win and lose sum.
- Minor fixes and usability
https://www.evtools.pro/files/EVToolsLight1.0.2.zip <


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canyang
Joined: 08.04.2020

Can't open, what's the matter? Might help me


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi canyang,
The post with the link is over two years old, and it appears that evtools is no longer available.


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canyang
Joined: 08.04.2020

The link to this software cannot be opened, send a picture to see what functions this software has


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Hi canyang,
The software is no longer available.
I tried following the link, and there is nothing there.


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canyang
Joined: 08.04.2020

As the customer service staff of the website, you are obligated to send emails to jacklie21 users, contact him, his website cannot be opened, and I hope he maintains it


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by canyang
As the customer service staff of the website, you are obligated to send emails to jacklie21 users, contact him, his website cannot be opened, and I hope he maintains it

Thanks for the update!


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canyang
Joined: 08.04.2020

This software is mainly suitable for Texas or Omaha games


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canyang
Joined: 08.04.2020

Mr. Hi, what is your email address, please send it to me, send me an email, I really need some auxiliary software to communicate with yo


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