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AA ~ Value bet sizing

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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 155.5 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (SB): 117.3 BB
BB: 115.7 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
UTG: 102 BB (VPIP: 20.59, PFR: 15.69, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 107)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: 43.1 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ A♠

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop: (11 BB, 2 players) 2♥ 2♠ J♣
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN calls 8 BB

Turn: (27 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero bets 22 BB, BTN calls 22 BB

River: (71 BB, 2 players) A♥
Hero bets 22 BB, BTN raises to 44 BB, Hero raises to 82.3 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 38.3 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows A♦ A♠ (Full House, Aces full of Twos)
(Pre 79%, Flop 88%, Turn 77%)
BTN shows J♥ 9♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 21%, Flop 12%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 225 BB

I decide to go with the 2.20 to try an get paid by a jack. obviously he can have 2x in his range too but the way he played it didn't scream a two.
When the ace hits the river i'm thinkin he'll pay a big bet with AJ but obviously we have 2 blockers.

Thoughts?


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9 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think it is ok. Villain can't have that many good hands here that would call a bigger bet. He probably is recreational so I would assume we get a lot more calls when we bet smaller.


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

I was a bit suspicious about a possible FD with that limp-call preflop and his play thereafter. I would wonder then what he calls twice on that board without raising flop or turn (probably not a set; two-pair seems unlikely OTF and OTT). Maybe I’d just call his river raise, rather than shoving, but I certainly couldn’t fold the top set.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by lfcmichael
I was a bit suspicious about a possible FD with that limp-call preflop and his play thereafter. I would wonder then what he calls twice on that board without raising flop or turn (probably not a set; two-pair seems unlikely OTF and OTT). Maybe I’d just call his river raise, rather than shoving, but I certainly couldn’t fold the top set.

This time hero has a full house here :)


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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

Hello. I will share my opinion as a not so skilled player (I can beat nl2 but thats all ).
The flop is standard cbet. On the turn I would expect his reraise with a strong FD ( I would call his reraise), or a call with the rest of his hands he would be willing to continue playing with.
On the river I would simply stack off, because the only hand that beats me is pocket 22 ( which I dont think he would check/call 2 streets with) and if my assumption on the turn was wrong (and he wouldnt be reraising with a FD) now when he hits it he simply wouldnt fold it I think.
Good luck and have a nice day.


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by lfcmichael
I was a bit suspicious about a possible FD with that limp-call preflop and his play thereafter. I would wonder then what he calls twice on that board without raising flop or turn (probably not a set; two-pair seems unlikely OTF and OTT). Maybe I’d just call his river raise, rather than shoving, but I certainly couldn’t fold the top set.

This time hero has a full house here :)

Of course. Haha. How did I not notice! I guess it would be different if a heart other than the A comes.


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Talisker74
Joined: 17.08.2009

I guess the hand is well played.
You get some mone in on flop and turn
River seems to be a dream, but on the other side.... with which hands should villain call here a big bet?

maybe a set... but which sets does he has (jj => should be raising pre and not limpin)
2x ?? Here only make ist sence with A2 => you block that really hard....

So i guess betsize is fine here and as you see, with villain having a strong hand, money get in anyway....


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tschoa
Joined: 22.12.2006

Can somebody please comment on why the turn bet is ok? We have one pair. Why don't we pot control a little bit. The board is not very wet and we can get float bluffs to bet for us?


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

We are playing against recreational player. If he has Jx hand or some other good pocket pair, he will probably call too much with them. So we are just going straight for value and betting our hand. I would say our hand is still quite strong here and since we are not way ahead / way behind I don't feel that big of a need to pot control. Also limpers are usually very passive so I don't assume he is going to bluff us very often.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

If we know that we are against a recreational player, then the play is ok. But if we are vs unknown - then our bet sizes are big! We should bet smaller on flop and turn.


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