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JTs hitting flush on flop. call or fold pot size bets?

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SeppoAT
Joined: 27.02.2009

No previous information on villain. Can I call this bet size?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102 BB
SB: 175.6 BB (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 11.88, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 162)
BB: 74 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
UTG: 104.5 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 209.9 BB
MP: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 14.39, PFR: 3.25, 3Bet Preflop: 2.09, Hands: 434)
MP+1: 220.4 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 17)
MP+2: 108.9 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 142.2 BB (VPIP: 17.17, PFR: 14.27, 3Bet Preflop: 5.47, Hands: 2,132)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ T♦

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 5 players) 9♦ 7♦ 5♦
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 9.6 BB, Hero calls 9.6 BB, BTN calls 9.6 BB, fold, BB calls 9.6 BB

Turn: (48.4 BB, 4 players) 2♠
BB checks, UTG bets 46.2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 46.2 BB


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9 replies
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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

I'm a bit confused.
Why not check-raise?
Sure he could have a higher flush, but he could also have A♦: and you don't want to give him any more cards for free.

I'm curious to hear what others think, though,
VS


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Raising the flop might be an option. Although I'm a bit worried that we isolate ourselves against a stronger range and make him fold any bluff hands he would otherwise continue barreling.
OTT I think I would still call this. Majority of villains possible flush combos are blocked. If we now fold OTT we are basically putting villain on a range of just a few combos and thinking he can never bluff or play a weaker value hand like 99 or AA,KK with one diamond like this.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I also think we have to raise the flop. His size looks alot like KK+, sets and flushes. Sometimes he has other overpairs and AdX. He will continue all those except maybe overpairs without a diamond and we are ahead this range. As played, I would call the turn for sure. I don't think we have enough reasons to believe that we are against better flushes only.


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Dandiiik
Joined: 19.07.2009

I wanted to say raise OTF but after a while of thinking about it, call seems to me as the best option. His potbet already looks strong and you raising will make any marginal hands simply fold without giving them a chance to make a mistake (there are still 3 players in action behind us). Both SB/BB seem like recreationals so they could be tempted to call with Ad or Kd. And I would not worry so much about giving cards for free because villain has already made Turn quite expensive for him himself by betting pot. And if you put him on Ad flush it means there are already at least 6 diamond cards in play making his draw less valuable.

With this in mind it seems impossible to me to fold on blank turn. Nothing changes here. Only his possible draw is now even less likely to become a made hand. Keep in mind that he can have a set as well which he is just trying to protect. OTT he is pot committed and I would just shove it. If he has something he pays, if not he is gonna c/f river anyway in case you call. But those potbets suggest that he is willing to play for the whole stack.


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CucumbaMan
Joined: 13.10.2017

I would call flop and turn as well.


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guilhermevg85
Joined: 01.01.2013

Board: 9d7d5d

Range 1: 99,77,55,AdAh,AdAc,AsAd,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,[50]AdKh,AdKc,AdKs,AdQh,AdQc,AdQs,AdJh,AdJc,AdJs[/50]
Range 2: JdTd

Equity 1: 49.602% Win 1: 49.602% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 50.398% Win 2: 50.398% Tie 2: 0.000%

I made a very pessimistic range and you have 50% equity against his calling range. I would raise flop and stack off this hand mainly because i think this player is fishy and not reg.

He OR 2bb from UTG and regs normally OR 2.5bb or 3bb, and reg population don't PSB flops like this. Recreational players normally tend to overplay hands like overpairs, sets etc on mono boards so i think you have a lot of value raising his PSB bet.

As Played put him all in on the turn.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

@guilhermevg85 - your assumption is not pessimistic. AdX may not call a raise.
I agree with la55i that by raising we isolate ourselves vs better flushes. I prefer to call flop and turn.


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Jakks
Joined: 12.12.2015

call flop and check-raise all-in OTT... What would you do OTR if he goes all-in? What you do OTR if a diamond comes?


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guilhermevg85
Joined: 01.01.2013

Originally posted by nitrol
@guilhermevg85 - your assumption is not pessimistic. AdX may not call a raise.
I agree with la55i that by raising we isolate ourselves vs better flushes. I prefer to call flop and turn.

AdX may not call a raise for sure. This is why i selected only a few combos and weightned to 50%...


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