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Double paired board and Flush Potential

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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

888 Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 29.90, PFR: 21.13, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 200)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 20)
MP: 199.2 BB (VPIP: 22.31, PFR: 17.61, 3Bet Preflop: 9.04, Hands: 525)
CO: 116 BB (VPIP: 27.04, PFR: 20.92, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 205)
BTN: 155 BB (VPIP: 24.07, PFR: 20.37, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 59)
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♦ J♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, Hero calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) A♠ T♠ T♣
Hero checks, CO bets 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (28 BB, 3 players) 8♠
Hero checks, CO bets 14 BB, fold, Hero calls 14 BB

River: (56 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero checks, CO bets 34.2 BB, fold

So reviewing this this morning, my first thoughts are that I should have tried to squeeze pre flop. My hand is clearly stronger than CO OR range and BTN's CC range.

OTF I make a standard call, I think I am only getting called by better, A2-A9 likely wouldn't call and neither would 22-99. Only hands calling are likely to be AA,AK, AQ, AJ, Tx, KK, QQ or JJ. Maybe I could have raised to protect against the FD?

Turn makes the board suited and I am not sure if his 1/2 pot bet tells me he is bluffing for value or as a bluff. Usually smaller bets suggest value?

To be honest, I am not sure the second 8 changes a lot, though if villain is playing a flush, it makes for a fantastic river bluff. Nonetheless I tell myself that there is far too much that beats me here and so I decide to fold.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

A 3bet pre-flop sees standard indeed. If you make it like 12bb in total you build a nice pot if 1 or both players calling. Off course it’s a disadvantage to play a big pot out of position. The rest seems standard and I expect without any reads on him that he isn’t bluffing enough to call the river bet.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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sdf256
Joined: 21.07.2016

Like you said, I would prefer squeeze preflop.
The rest looks fine to me.


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