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3bet pot OOP - flop the nutflush draw

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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Hand from Ignition 10NL, 6max

Do you all think that the turn and river shove is too optimistic? Was planning on x/raising the flop all in but could definitely see merit in betting off flop and turn. Anyway, as played I thought villains check back on the flop indicated a marginal hand - something like JJ, TT, 9x maybe some Qx that didn't bet and any other stuff that completely missed and doesn't bet - AJs, 88 etc.

Since, I put villain on this range I decided to barrel off thinking I could get most of that to fold by the river except some of the Qx. Villain ends up calling with A♥:9♥: a hand I thought would definitely fold by the river. Is this bluff too optimistic?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
HERO ($12.20) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 29.7% | Flop Agg: 31.3% | Turn Agg: 31.2% | River Agg: 23.8% | 3-Bet: 8.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 48.3% | 4-Bet: 13.5% | Hands: 58893]
UTG ($6.23) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 9]
HJ ($10.32) [VPIP: 14% | PFR: 7% | AGG: 44.4% | Flop Agg: 27.3% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 4.2% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 58]
CO ($5) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
BTN ($10.58) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 42.1% | Hands: 72]
SB ($8.42) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 9% | AGG: 17.3% | Hands: 124]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ K♦

UTG Calls $0.10, HJ Raises To $0.40, CO Calls $0.30, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $2.20, UTG Folds, HJ Calls $1.80, CO Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.64 effective]
Flop ($4.95): 9♦ Q♠ 5♦
HERO Checks, HJ Checks

Turn ($4.95): 9♦ Q♠ 5♦ 3♠
HERO Bets $2.36 (Rem. Stack: $7.64), HJ Calls $2.36 (Rem. Stack: $5.76)

River ($9.67): 9♦ Q♠ 5♦ 3♠ 8♣
HERO Bets $7.64 (allin), HJ Calls $5.76 (allin)

Spoiler

HJ shows: A♥ 9♥

HJ wins: $20.14


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5 replies
Alek891
Joined: 11.07.2015

1. Nice big bet preflop OOP. We gotta be careful when HJ (tight reg) calls us.
2. On the flop, I bet 1/3 pot or x/r depending on the sizing.
3. I bet again on turn. He should be folding his JJ to your 2barrel and especially his A9s, if he is not doing it, he is losing money here. So exploit him next time, by value betting wide.
4. River obviously bricked and he is not folding to your bluff. You can only hope it goes x/x.

You lost, cause he was putting you on a semi-bluff, nothing completes on river, so he knows you are capped, not having even Qx in you range. Good call from his side. You gotta bet flop and turn and your golden.


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It's only 58 hands but what was your table image like ? it's one of those strange spots where a 14/7 nit turns up with something pretty unexpected.Not sure why they call a $2.20 sqz pre.You would expect a fold on the river but if your image was aggressive it maybe could explain the calls.


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Swish29
Joined: 06.04.2009

I don't understand the sizing preflop. 1.6$ is sufficient (at least it deserves an explanation when posting the hand - do you have a read that he calls any sizing preflop? If yes, why not shove? Is it your standard sizing? If yes, do you realize that it has a poor risk/reward and thinking regs will give you less action with worse hands?), it's also easier to balance to 3bet smaller, who has a bluffing range here when 3betting to 22bb? HJ will never try to 4bet light and as said above, A9s is unexpected indeed. As played I would 1/4-1/3 psb flop and shove turn, so that TT/JJ/splits fold (ideally)


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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Originally posted by Swish29
I don't understand the sizing preflop. 1.6$ is sufficient (at least it deserves an explanation when posting the hand - do you have a read that he calls any sizing preflop?

I typically go 4x from OOP but with the Cutoff caller and Utg limper I decided to make it a little on the larger side to discourage a multiway pot(mainly the cutoff calling behind).


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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Originally posted by RedsYNWA
It's only 58 hands but what was your table image like ? it's one of those strange spots where a 14/7 nit turns up with something pretty unexpected.Not sure why they call a $2.20 sqz pre.You would expect a fold on the river but if your image was aggressive it maybe could explain the calls.

I was fairly surprised to see this hand show up as well, by memory my image was a little aggressive. I tend to do a lot of 3betting from the blinds and that can encourage some opponents to do some wacky things at times.


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