3-bet shoved on the turn holding two pair

Will someone that tight open J9 from UTG?

I decide to raise turn to get value from AK,AQ possibly AJ etc. Villain 3-bet shoves the turn.. his stats are tight but tight players because they play so few hands when they do flop TPTK they may go with it.

Seems sensible.

I'm not super excited when he shoves, but I dont think you can fold this hand ever. In general against regular I think its more call turn than raise as he should be betting pretty strong range and he is only one who can have J9s. You should also make more from AK/AQ because those hands should be easy folds to raise for him.

As for villain stats - 70 hands is too small sample to make assumptions about player strategy. 17/13 after 70 hands can be 30/22 after 5k hands. We can only say that he probably has some poker education as his stats are tight and he has low gap between VPIP and PFR.

4 handed it's really tough to fold top 2 pair on the turn. If villian had a set it's just a cooler I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
I'm not super excited when he shoves, but I dont think you can fold this hand ever. In general against regular I think its more call turn than raise as he should be betting pretty strong range and he is only one who can have J9s. You should also make more from AK/AQ because those hands should be easy folds to raise for him.

As for villain stats - 70 hands is too small sample to make assumptions about player strategy. 17/13 after 70 hands can be 30/22 after 5k hands. We can only say that he probably has some poker education as his stats are tight and he has low gap between VPIP and PFR.

Why do you think a BTN caller can’t have J9s here? I think your right about calling turn after analyzing I don’t know if we are ahead of 50% or more his range that continues, thats how we think about it right? I do think players at 2nl overvalue TPTK and just don’t fold them quite a high% of the time but I guess even if we give him all TPTK he can also have :

- all flopped sets (7 combos)
- A8 hearts and clubs (2 combos)
- A7 clubs (1)
-turned TT (1)

And we are ahead of basically AK and AQ (16 combos)

We lose to 11 and are ahead of 16, assuming he calls or continues with his best Ax if we include J9s in his range it seems like a very marginal spot and maybe calling was the best choice.

What hands does he come over the top with on the turn for an all in? If he does so with only sets and two pairs can we realistically fold because of his tight stats? In game I did not even see the straight with J9 to be honest, I was very suprises to see him turn over J9cc after I called. I really didnt think this tight player would open that from first to act but it suprised me more that he c-bet a gutshot like this,

Why do you think a BTN caller can’t have J9s here?

Because of rake. If you call J9s there then its clear mistake on nl2, no way you can make it profitable against TAG opening from EP unless you have huge edge postflop. It looks pretty, but it doesnt play that well when opponent has all better suited broadways dominating your hand. According to GTOWizard against 2,5bb open on nl500 rake J9s is folding on button 80% of time. On nl50 rake GTOWizard is pure folding.

I do think players at 2nl overvalue TPTK and just don’t fold them quite a high% of the time

Lets look a bit different. If he is betting AK/AQ then on river he will usually fire third time or at least check/call so you have 3 streets of value. Notice that you dont want to see 17 cards on river every spade, 9 or J are bad. On top of that Q and K are not greatest either. That it another reason why I favour calling.

I also think that this board is one on which even sticky regulars may find fold with AK/AQ - A high with 3 connected medium cards. That would be obviously disaster for us given how many strong hands he can have in range.

What hands does he come over the top with on the turn for an all in? If he does so with only sets and two pairs can we realistically fold because of his tight stats?

I'm praying that he is overplaying A8/A7/87 or draw. Not really exciting spot, but if you raise then you should just go broke there. Call is there probably slightly EV +/- depending on player.

I really didnt think this tight player would open that from first to act but it suprised me more that he c-bet a gutshot like this,

Well its decent hand to multi barrel. Also I remind you that after 70 hands you shouldnt label player as tight/loose/agressive/passive etc. So you shouldnt be surprised that player unknown for you can surprise you.

If we raise the turn our range is already so strong. We raise a lot of nutted hands and we are never bluffing, because it doesent makes much sense we can call for draws and bluff the river if needed.

Because we can raise so much nutted hands i think this hand is a clear call on the turn, when we look a bit deeper into it.
We can call keep our range wide and his range wide, and we can still improve or get another bet from worse hands.
Realizing our equity with some 2 pair hand on a nutted board when we just call makes more sense i think.
Realizing Equity = % of the raw equity we win the pot postflop. We have some good equity and we can just call down to realize it.

Originally posted by Casey55
Why do you think a BTN caller can’t have J9s here?

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Because of rake. If you call J9s there then its clear mistake on nl2, no way you can make it profitable against TAG opening from EP unless you have huge edge postflop. It looks pretty, but it doesnt play that well when opponent has all better suited broadways dominating your hand.

I haven't realized this before. Thankx

When I read other comments I think my play would be bad...

But if I was playing this hand.. I would 3b/fold preflop... (if UTG would donk) Call flop, turn and river.

I think when we just called preflop, T on turn is better for our range, with preflop call we have just more straights and sets and 2p. So if UTG understand that range logic I would fold his all-in. But if his aggression is high, and he will try get value for every hand in his top range I think he can have some AK,AQ and AJ what he can play like this.

I would probably fold this,.. as mentioned we're not beating many combos of hands except overplayed AK/AQ. It is NL2, I think it's close and calling isn't terrible so don't beat yourself up over it. It's not that common of a spot.