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[Closed] nl 100 Sh KK

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eszibit
Joined: 10.12.2007

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]MP3$103.55:///////;CO$118.55:///////;BU(Hero)$116.10:///////;SB$113.65:///////;BB$71.50:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BU with K:c, K:h.
MP3 calls $1.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $5.00, 2 folds, MP3 calls $4.00.

Flop: ($11.5) Q:s, 6:d, 9:d (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $8.00, MP3 raises to $21.00, Hero calls $13.00.

Turn: ($53.5) 3:h (2 players)
MP3 bets $77.55(All-In), Hero calls $77.55.

River: ($208.6) A:d (2 players)

Final Pot: $208.6.

No stats on him and i thought it looked like a pocket pair turned set and that's why i didn't push on the flop,but the overbet turn made me call...good or bad?


1 reply
Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

That is really hard to answer, in the end this is a pure guessing game.

You need 77/(77+77+53)=37% EQ to make this call.

The opponent would need this range:
Board: Qs 9d 6d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.689% 62.69% 00.00% 331 0.00 { 99, 66, AdQd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd, 8d7d }
Hand 1: 37.311% 37.31% 00.00% 197 0.00 { KcKh }

to make this a breakeven call.
This is a comparatively tight range.

So i think i'm just calling it off like you did, there are many opponents who could overplay some TP type of hand like this or flushdraws (maybe even some naked OESDs).

I think a call is the most +EV play in the long run.