[Closed] Nl100 77

c/R bigger on Flop to like $18-19

Bet/shove the Turn on that Turncard but tune up the betsize to $26/33.5 or even bigger

hmm yeah ? without history, notes etc you would just ship it here ?

I would assume he would call the turn again with his draws or draws+pairs and only raise 2pair/sets/straights.

And since there is only one 7 remaining in the deck the chances of him having 78/76 are pretty slim. So only reasonable 2pair is 86 which would fold some of the time on the flop aswel I think.

So my reasoning is :

*draws(+pair) would call turn
*2pair is unlikely because of my set w 77
*Numerous straight draws got there on the turn
*Villain is playing tight, we have no history so I don't think he is overagressive postflop

Could you maybe further explain your arguments for shoving ? Because I really feel this is borderline situation considering the arguments I previously stated and I ended up folding.

I'd lead out on the flop because the stacksize of BTN indicates he's not a reg - and even if he is there's a big chance he doesn't cbet this flop unimproved.

So I lead out $8 on the flop.

As played definitely c/r bigger, he gets the odds to call with almost all draws.
I'd go up to potsize in this spot to get maximum value.
So about $19-$20 seems good to me.

As played on the turn I bet/call.
Your argument are a lot of straightdraws got there, but he plays 15/12. There is room for T9s at maximum.
He never shows up with 95 or 54 on this spot, he would neither limp/call preflop nor bet/call the flop with those.
And even T9s is unlikely since his gap beween PFR and VPIP would have to be higher.

So I think we're far ahead of his range the vast majority of the time, there simply aren't any valuecombinations we have to fear as he would almost certainly get it in with 88 on the flop.