imo its way better to write x y z than xxx yyy zzz.At least in my eyes 
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Originally posted by jaxtraw
Originally posted by jaxtraw
Originally posted by lessthanthreee
snap jam with a side of peanut butter.anything else seems not so good.
Im sorry,
Hand should read:
6Player turbo-Top Two get paid
Both reg s\and villain are good players
BB 200
xxx 3690button
yyy 2035 sb
zzz 3275 bbxxx raises to 400
yyy folds
zzz has A9hh ?SNG wiz says this is a fold, unless we know button's raising range is 65%,,,thoughts?
Maybe villain can be raising 65% in some cases, but he cannot call 45% as SNG wiz suggest or you can change his note from good to very bad player... It is bubble with 2 big stacks and BU is very risk averse in calling.
Real question is what kind of opponent button is and how does he see SB and BB... They are good players... OK, but that doesn't tell that much how they play or approach bubble. Snap fold and shove are both ok.
ICM Explorer will give following for BU call, if BB shove:
Equity needed: 56,39%
Chip odds: 43,23%
Risk premium: 13,16%
So, if button see both blinds as tight he can profitably open raise button very wide, but he still need 56.4% equity to call BB shove. So, if A9s is bottom of BB shove range BU can only call like AQo+, AJs+, 99+ or bit tighter. With that call range BB can shove profitably any2, if BU is open raising bit over 30% and BU thinks A9s is bottom of BB range and understand how risk averse he is in this spot.
But if BU expects blinds to shove wide he might tighten up his open raise range a lot. At that point BB can easily fold his A9s.
Sorry ghaleon, I wanted to illustrate where Wiz ranges can be skewed. It should have read opening 40% calling 10%. ANd yes Im shoving here. My point I was "trying to make 
is we should be 3bet shoving a lot wider than Wiz dictates in these situations.
Originally posted by jaxtraw
Sorry ghaleon, I wanted to illustrate where Wiz ranges can be skewed. It should have read opening 40% calling 10%. ANd yes Im shoving here. My point I was "trying to make
Well, if we are doing this then villain's strategy of raise/folding will become less attractive
For villain, is this a spot then, where Standard Raise/Folding will be more advantageous than Push/Folding?
Originally posted by Tim64
Well, if we are doing this then villain's strategy of raise/folding will become less attractive
Yes, and this leads to another concept I have been teaching students lately.
If there is a regular in the blinds who views us "as someone who will try to steal from button or SB more frequently than a random", can we use this to our advantage?
At 12-15BB would villain be more apt to 3bet-push over our standard raise, than call a push from us? If yes, does that mean standard raising hands like A9+ in BU or SB with 12-15bb gives us more value than pushing?
A9s just depends on villain. "Good players" doesn't indicate what their strategy is, stats and other reads would be more useful. Against a habitual min-raiser of course shoving is best. But if I'm min-raising there you pretty much want to snap fold your A9.
Hey fellas,
Sorry about the lack of posts, I was on holiday, but Im back and looking forward to making this thread a valuable asset to all you aspiring players. From some of the replies I am thinking it necessary to discuss the importance of determining a good player from a bad player, and will post about this concept this evening.
Peace,
Jax
When I post hands and give descriptions of villains I do not cite HEM statistics, instead I describe a player as bad, breakeven or good. The reason I do not characterize a player along the lines of his HEM numbers is I find it much more useful and efficient to categorize my opponents based on their skill level.
I find bad players are going to play a certain way, breakeven-ABC-multitabling regs will play another, and thinking winning players also play a certain style. These categories tell me how a player thinks about the game which is very important to understand their intentions when they make a play. When considering their skill level in conjunction with the table dynamics or game flow, I can adjust opponents' hand ranges on the fly.
HEM numbers can be misleading as it is historical data, and may be less relevant to the current game, or even obsolete. Some of my students get stuck on using a HUD, and it becomes a crutch limiting their ability to adapt to table dynamics. HEM numbers do not reflect a players changing style until after the fact.
For example, a player over 10,000 hands might have a high 3bet% of 10%. However, he could start to evolve his game and over the last 500 hands only 3bet 4% of the time. The accumulated information we have on him will still reflect a very high 3bet% until enough hands have been played to bring down the number. On the flip side, if all you know about the player is that he is a good player you can anticipate spots where he should go ahead and 3bet, regardless of his past performance. You then factor in what he has been doing over the current game or the last several games (if applicable) you have played with him, and determine a more accurate, current hand range for
How do you best develope reads on villains when playing multiple tables without the use of HUD though? I see how relying on Stats exclusively is a bad idea but without it keeping track of every player on multiple tables becomes impossible doesn't it?
Maybe this is why I am one of those breakeven-ABC-multitabling not so reg's you mentioned 
Super,
It is much more useful, and relative, in determining if a player is good or bad. Simple reason is because we will then understand the intent behind plays. For example a good player who flat calls our raise from the big blind will have a much different hand range than a bad player who flats in the big blind.
That said determining who is good and bad does not require that much focus. Usually within the first two rounds of play a bad player will out himself by sending up red flags that should stick out to you. Like playing a lot of early hands, limping, and giving no consideration for position. Even one play, like opening formt he button with a limp should tip you off that he is not good
I play a game with myself by determining who is good and bad, then checking wiht sharkscope, Id say more than 9/10 times i am write if the player has a positive or negative roi before I see.
I dont know if I explained it well, feel free to ask if it is not clear.
I see what you are saying (I think) that you look at; for example, how often a bad player reacts to a re-steal shove than to look at how often this particular player folds / calls / 4 bets from HUD... Am I right?
This makes sense but I guess what I am saying is doesn't a HUD help you identify those bad players vs solid regs by showing you how often they do open limp and play too many hands etc? I guess I mean using the HUD to make broad evaluations of a players abilities rather than an analytical decision on the EV of an action against this opponent and there specific range based on there statistical data.
The good player/bad player concept is not really applicable to restealing, as both good and bad players make steal attempts. I use table dynamics to dictate what I will do. If villain on the button raised my BB 2x in a row, and now is going in for 3rd time, my restealing range opens way wide. This is regardless of what his HUD stats say.
THe problem with using HuD information is that it is historical data, and can be greatly different from what a player is doing in the current game. If a player is playing 20/19 over 5000 hands, but has been lagging it up over the last 1000 hands, he will still have to play many more hands for his HUD stats to reflect the change.
Originally posted by jaxtraw
THe problem with using HuD information is that it is historical data, and can be greatly different from what a player is doing in the current game. If a player is playing 20/19 over 5000 hands, but has been lagging it up over the last 1000 hands, he will still have to play many more hands for his HUD stats to reflect the change.
At least hem offer possibility to filter hands using certain time frame. E.g. last 6 months or whatever user wants. So that is not that huge problem imo. Also players quite rarely change their play that much over short period of time. Maybe they change their ranges somewhat, but I would still say that those stats give quite good information.
Also not relying into historical data has it own danger. Lets say that we have stats of someone for 3000 hands. He has been playing with stats of 15/13/18/4 vpip/pfr/steal/3bet. Now for few games he happen to raise often from late positions, maybe 3betting with surprisingly often our late position open. Might be that he is abusing us, but I would still think that it's more often just hot streak of hands. Especially, if our villain is somewhat breakeven reg.
When filtered hand samples become big it also often create history between villain and hero. So especially versus good villains stats and default approach to game become less important and it is more of that history. Still from stats we get some info on his "default play" ranges in certain spots.
Also it's not that bad to have some stats on the fish. E.g. if fish limp in middle position it will be beneficial to know if his vpip/pfr is 20/2, 70/30 or 30/15. Cause that will effect our decisions greatly. Might be hard info to gather without hud information while multitabling?
Anyway table dynamics, history, hero/villain image, HUD stats, ... Those are all just tools to try and make optimal decisions. All give it own information and how player use and highlight those are his decisions. Obviously aspect where everyone should continue to develop and has space for it.
Yeah, filtering for my recent stats is better, but still skews the info a bit.If I know what certain of my HUD stats are, and that you are using them as a basis for you image of me, then I can manipulate that.
For example, if my numbers indicate I am active on the button at late levels, then I will narrow my steal attempts against you. Theoretically, you should not notice my adjustment, and keep your 3bet push at the same range. I therefore can call you wider, and entice you to stack off.
Another way of putting what Jax is saying is to say let's take 2 regs playing 10/8 with 30% steal. One could be a huge winner, the other a loser, and the same can apply with 2 players on any identical numbers. We don't see what actually goes on inbetween. But that said, when you have a decent number of hands on players then HUD stats are IMPERATIVE. When a reg shoves 7-9bb from EP, seeing whether that almost solid fixed range is 12% or 22% is critical. You're never going to get those reads without the numbers.
Hey danger,
Yeah for sure HUD numbers are helpful, just as long as they are used as an indicator and not an absolute. I see far too many people using their HUD stats to determine their action, when it is probably more effective to use them as an "indicator". Meaning, when factoring in other information such as stack size, hand strength, and position, if you are still unsure than go ahead and use your HUD stats. However, I find a more accurate indicator as to the intention of an opponents action is to look at their play within the game. You do not have to pay that much to attention to become aware that a player has raised your blind 3x in a row.
I saw this hand on 2+2 and believed it an interesting hand, but strong with my opinion that I will post.
BB 1,575 (31.5 bb)
Hero (MP): 1,325 (26.5 bb)
CO: 1,595 (31.9 bb)
BTN: 1,425 (28.5 bb)
SB: 3,080 (61.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with T T
Hero raises to 112.50, CO folds, BTN raises to 275, SB folds, BB calls 225, Hero calls 162.50
Flop: (850) 2 9 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 1,150 and is all-in, 2 folds
Reads
btn seems like a reasonably decent player. I've only played with him in the $235s and he's up a little over a pretty small sample of games. Stats are 34/30/ 4.8ag after 240 hands. He opens lots of btns and 3bets 13% from co and same on btn. The bb is a random playing 47/13 after 36hands. Anybody do anything different pre or otf?
I would 4bet shove preflop. When button is loose in his 3bets and its 5 handed and some unknown with such high vpip cold call it gets very tempting to shove as pot is almost 700 when it comes to hero. Huuuge pot if both villains happen to fold and flipping is obviously fine as well.
Anyway hero cannot call as pure set mining so on what flops he is then going to continue if he is folding this one. Without some reads of BTN flop shove. I would expect villain more often to cbet small than shove with like KK+ or better.
I play it exactly the same way. I don't think 13% 3b is necessarily accurate after 250 hands and I don't expect to be ever ahead when we 4bet shove, just hoping for a flip with some dead money.
I think we absolutely can call for set value here. First the 3bet is smallish (2.5x) and second there is a fish in the BB that represents our additional value.
As played, what can we do? Do we assume BU over bet shoves flop with over cards against two players ( one of whom is a fish and will not hesitate to call with T9s or w/e) when he knows our range should include a ton of pairs?