Villians range?

Any postflop stats on villain?

Seems like a calling station to me : 0% 2bet, 0% raise Cbet, calling cbet 80%, donk bets 0%.. basicly all stats are call ~70% of all bets and folds rest. no raises or bets. but 139 hands are a small sample

Edit : he sees river 67% of the time.

vs a calling station I prefer bet small/fold.

Thanks for the advice, first part of my question is still unanswered though.

MP2 46.75% 39.61% 7.14% AhJh
MP3 53.25% 46.10% 7.14% AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s

ok this is how we do it.

BTN and sb calls flop, they most likely have JX, TX, maybe A5 (if players are weak) KQ and T9 for straight draws, also some weaker players can call with 66-99 and also 55, TT and JJ are possible, although more unlikely because they should raise for protection vs straight draws, but I wouldn't completely discount them at NL2.

So when you bet the turn and only BTN calls, we can assume BB had something like 66, 88, 99, 5x maybe Tx,. bbs range here after calling the turn you are clearly in front 98% of the time (asumiing he don't play hands like J3s) if he called the flop with a set he will raise the turn so we can strongly discount sets from the range of Jx, Tx, 89, KQ, 55, TT JJ and 77.

so on the river BTNs range looks like this - JX, TX, 89, KQ I forgot to add Q9, so for our decision?

Lets ask a question?

Is the player aggressive and does the player bluff his missed draws?

If this is yes then check/call is the best opstion since he has many missed draws.
If no then we should bet half pot/fold for value, since if he raises we can assume he slow played a set.

On a final note each player type is very different

Example 1 - TAGs will never end up on the river with a 97, most of them will never bluff a missed draw (unless tilted ive notice)
Example 2 - Some very weak players will show up with an A9 here

Its up to you to tag players certain colour for there style and assign a range that suits them witch tells me you should go read and watch some videos about player types

I hope this was helpful

goodluck!

Guess he has a lot of Jx here, prolly some Tx. If he had any 2p combination or 98 he would most likely already have raised, so seems like a pretty clear value bet to me.

Thanks, for the insight. I did bet 2/3 pot on river. and he called, with QQ

I had him on Tx, Jx, 98. so looking back i should have bet a bit less on river.

FrozenElf, the reason why i asked in forums was to see if my assumption was far off.

Originally posted by nitrol
MP2 46.75% 39.61% 7.14% AhJh
MP3 53.25% 46.10% 7.14% AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s

Hand 0: 50.000% 42.86% 07.14% 6 1.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 50.000% 42.86% 07.14% 6 1.00 { AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s }

Personally I prefer to bet half pot on the river for value, usually QQ would 3bet, I would take a note of the player, saying that sometimes cold calls with big pairs preflop.

I wouldn't be too concerned over the outcome of this specific hand, I think you played it right. just remember that sometimes we can make the right play and still lose

Originally posted by xen0nx
Thanks, for the insight. I did bet 2/3 pot on river. and he called, with QQ

I had him on Tx, Jx, 98. so looking back i should have bet a bit less on river.

Yes, that is why I recommended bet small ( 1/2)/ fold.

Originally posted by xen0nx

Originally posted by nitrol
MP2 46.75% 39.61% 7.14% AhJh
MP3 53.25% 46.10% 7.14% AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s

Hand 0: 50.000% 42.86% 07.14% 6 1.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 50.000% 42.86% 07.14% 6 1.00 { AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 98s }

I didn't put the river card...