Balancing poker, life, programming and investing

Hi, SPeedFANat1c,
Welcome back!

Good to have you here again.
The hand is indeed interesting.

I think you played it just about right -- you lost the minimum when he hit his gutshot.
A bet on the flop might have helped, but he had 2nd pair, and of course his gutshot, so it is unlikely he would have folded in any case.

I don't know how to advise you about studying. How to you learn best? Articles? Videos? Coaching?

Do whatever suits your style/

All the best,
VS

I am back, but now I am missing hand evaluations by coaches. Why there no such thing anymore? This had to attract lot of trafic to this site.

A bet on the flop might have helped,

I think with 2nd pair he would not pay me 3 streets, ok, proably on turn I would have to go allin, so 2 streets, and there are many better hands in his range, so I decided to keep pot small.

Now when I know result, of course I can put him on much wider range.

I don't know how to advise you about studying. How to you learn best? Articles? Videos? Coaching?

I do not know how do I learn best ♦

Current month graph. Was nice but there were big hands which took my money.

Ok, talked with poker friend, who beats NL20 with MSS at about 2 bb/100 how should I go, I mean about studying.

[*] - make reasonable preflop ranges ( I think I have those about ok)
[*] - then chose one chater from janda book work it through and write summery and practice it.
[*] - mark hands to that spot and look over them to see if you applied it correct. to start with. facing a check on the flop would be best. there you leran to understand basic stuff . which hands make good cbets and which are better 4 checking back. and why you want to do so.
[*] - and also a bit about betsizing .

And take my time to get topic done, to the point when I can do it without thinking.

So I guess now I should filter the hands where flop cbet is possible and last to act = true and write what action should I do as a test. THen count how much in % I was correct, based on theory. And probably I might misunderstand a theory so I will need help from him or other people.

So without reading theory (besides 1.5 year ago) here is the hand for example:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($9.16)
BB ($10.27)
UTG ($1.35)
Hero ($7.44)
CO ($2.99)
BTN ($5)

Dealt to Hero A♣ T♦

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, fold, SB calls $0.13, fold

FLOP ($0.35) T♠ K♠ J♦

SB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($0.35) T♠ K♠ J♦ 6♣

SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

RIVER ($0.75) T♠ K♠ J♦ 6♣ Q♣

SB checks, Hero bets $0.36, SB calls $0.36

This is zoom table, unknown multitabler.

On flop no cbet because my hand is just medium and I do not want big pot. With hands he calls, he should have good equity.

Turn - I have to bluffcatch, because I did not show strenght. Bad thing is that board hits his range well if he calls suited broadways vs MP.

River - very scary board, but I try to get thin value with my nuts. At worst case pot will be split.

Hi, SPeedFANat1c,
I think that a CBet isn't totally out of line actually.

You are ahead of all of his low pocket pair type hands, so you don't mind a call, and you don't mid a call from his flush draws.
You have a blocker to the straight as well.

Cheers,
VS

I do not think that multitalber will call ever a cbet with low PP. You mean 4th pair, as I understand.

FDs will call. Hmm, probably would need to put hand to equilab and see. But I think we cannot go for 3 streets of value, so for that reason I do not bet flop.

Of course IP we can cbh turn and prepare to bluffcatch river. I guess that betting 2 streets might be too much with such weak pair vs not fish.

Yeah, I understand.
It's just that I've been looking for spots to be more aggro postflop.

Over the past month, I had a surprise bonus offered me, and because I'm going away, I had only two weeks to clear it.
So I went to NL 10, and got into trouble right off the bat.

Have a look at this graph, and see if you can spot where I started to get more aggressive.
v small sample size, and yes, I did lose some sizable pots -- probably stretching too far -- but it sure beat the passive style I started out with.

The last 500 hands were on a Friday night, though, so there may have been some weaker players in that mix.

Best of luck,
VS

Hi,

its been a while since my last update. DId no play too much. I will show the graph after september 1, because really little hands there:

so my non sd winings are killing me it feels so. The cbets do not work. I just win big money when I hit AA vs AK or smth, then then little by little stack drops down. And no idea what is wrong. Its just NL5. I believe that I have leaks in cbeting, but I think I still remember some of the things, I was trying to beat NL25 1-2 years ago.

Or maybe it is just a sample? And need to grind more? I do not want waste my time grinding and making same mistakes.

And btw I got the new job, from the interview it looked better than current one, besides one thing - less privacy in the office, but if we will fit with coworkers well then this will not be a big issue.

Here is one hand, hopefully I do ok with it:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.02)
BB ($5.05)
UTG ($11.15)
Hero ($12.84)
CO ($5)
BTN ($5.52)

Dealt to Hero T♣ A♥

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.52) 7♠ K♥ A♣

Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO folds

TURN ($1.02) 7♠ K♥ A♣ 7♣

Hero checks, BTN checks

RIVER ($1.02) 7♠ K♥ A♣ 7♣ 7♥

Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Unknown.

so no cbet because my hand is not the nuts and in 3way it will look super strong from MP and will generate lot of fold from weak hands. Kx will not pay me much, I can get next 2 streets if it checks back.

Turn if he would bet - would be tought. I do not expect many bluff 2nd barrels, so I might easily be beaten. Would you call 0.5 size bet on turn? 0.75 pot bet?

River good card. Maybe had to bet 3/4 or even more. But what if I get raised big or allin? I guess then its a fold. At least if he is reg.

Or lets say I am in his shoes with Ax - what do I do? Raise/fold to get value from Kx? Maybe its valid. So then it means I can call if he raises not too much. Otherwise he might have 7x.

Also - if he has 7x and goes allin and it means 100% 7x, that sounds wrong also. We have an easy fold. So he still has to have some bluffs to not make us fold everytime he has 7x. So then it means we have to call Ax even to an allin. Just not sure how often. Maybe not all the time. Need calculations, but not doing so because now focusing mainly on flop cbets.

Congrats on the job!

As for your red line, I'm going to guess that it has more to do with your blind play that with your CBet frequency.
In the stats you posted, note that you fold SB to steal 100% and BB 85%. I think that it is a continuation of the top line on the other two tables.
If so, 166 hands is not a lot.

Looking at the totals for all stakes, yes, your flop CBet% seems low, and yes, your aggression is low, but the big standout seems to be that you don't defend your blinds much.

So passive play, and not defending blinds can lead to a graph like that.

Can you post your stats by position for all stakes?

What to do about it?
I suggest reading articles or watching videos on blind defense.
Pay attention to how often BU open-raises.
Let's say it is 55%

Now go to Equilab and find the range that has 60% equity vs a 55% open-raise range.
It looks like this:

       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     32.40%  31.41%   0.99% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
BB     67.60%  66.60%   0.99% { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }

Surprising, isn't it?
The beauty of it is that 3Betting pre gives your CBet a lot more authority.

Don't go changing your play just on this illustration -- that is all it is.
But do go and study up on blind defense and flop play.

Best of luck,
VS

note that you fold SB to steal 100% and BB 85%.

we have to look at total numbers,

SB fold to steal total is 83,9, and BB fold to steal is 68.

So not sure what first - flop play or blind defence I should study. Now I study flop play more.

What flop turn and river agression frequencies should be?

About flop cbet - should it not be combined with c/r stat? When I do not cbet, it does not mean that I do not c/r. My c/r 13,4. And flop cbet IP is 57 %. Also checked - flop cbet OOP is 40.4, so plus 13.4 c/r - it is 53.7 %. Is that not high enough?

Actually I have in documents that flop cbet should be at least 55 %. But it should depend a lot if its IP or OOP. And then what c/r should be - I do not know. If the sum of c/r and cbet OOP should be at least 55, then we can fix that.

Can you post your stats by position for all stakes?

It is configured to have less stats, but if need, I could check more. But samples are automatically smaller.

{ 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }

I use all of those in BB vs BTN plus I add even more hands, depending on the opening size. Vs minraise, I probably call all broadways, Ax, PPs. Call or 3bet suited connectors, suited 2 gappers. Its not so tight range of defend - its 32% when we look at the stat 68 % fold in BB vs steal.

And today I had super hand:

21/14 14h

And on the flop I did not cbet because I thought this hand is good to defend my checking range, he will bet all his draws, he could even bet his backdoor but did not, but from his Q8 of spades I would have got nothing by bettting anyway.
Hmm, maybe actually missing value from weaker Kx, 9x, because those could check behind, for keeping pot small and bb vs sb - he has many of those. Or maybe not so many, because weak Kxs he could 3bet, and Kxo weak ones he probably might fold.
Not so sure about this flop cbet. But really he has many things which are weak and he will bet himself. Like GS, FDs, BDFDs.

Today I feel I was running good, one moment and NL5 zoom table I had 28 $. Do not look at winnings yet, because will try to play this evening, so later if I will not forget - post results..

Here is one of the interesting hands from session:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.85)
BB ($9.90)
UTG ($8.38)
UTG+1 ($5.81)
CO ($5)
Hero ($9.95)

Dealt to Hero T♦ A♦

UTG raises to $0.15, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.15, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.37) 7♦ 5♦ J♦

UTG bets $0.26, Hero raises to $1.13, UTG calls $0.87

TURN ($2.63) 7♦ 5♦ J♦ 5♣

UTG bets $1.26, Hero calls $1.26

RIVER ($5.15) 7♦ 5♦ J♦ 5♣ K♠

UTG bets $3.70, Hero folds

UTG wins $4.94

zoom unknown

Turn already looks suspitions and maybe I am already dead, because he calls flop and then leads turn - looks like he wants to not miss value. If he is in bluffcatch mode, he would check and call, like AJ hand.

On the other hand - still interesting what can he have. I was thinking about full house, but he has to have set on flop. And so - with set he should 3bet flop I guess, because he does not want to give free flush card.

This is acutally weird hand when I think now. In game I was thinking its 99% fullhouse. But now it does not make much sense, besides taht its NL5 and people can slowplay set for some unknown reason.

Update:
one guy who plays NL50 says that his line does not make sense, so he assumes he is fish, and calls him down. Fish also can be bluffing (often enough according to him)

Update
Today play is over, played 2500 hands and won 2.74 $, EV -5.5 $

I like the redline today:

Update
Another NL50 guy said also to call down easily. Even passive fish do dumb stuff with air, or overvalue hands, or just do random stupid stuff with hands of random value. And he would not call an average fish "passive", maybe in 2007

Another day of good redline, but not able to win real money, because blue line now is going down.

I see that w$sd is below 50 which is bad. I am not sure what is wrong - sample, or I bluffcatch in wrong spots.

THe graph since september 1:

Originally posted by VorpalF2FWhat to do about it?
I suggest reading articles or watching videos on blind defense.
Pay attention to how often BU open-raises.
Let's say it is 55%

Now go to Equilab and find the range that has 60% equity vs a 55% open-raise range.
It looks like this:

       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     32.40%  31.41%   0.99% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
BB     67.60%  66.60%   0.99% { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }

Surprising, isn't it?
The beauty of it is that 3Betting pre gives your CBet a lot more authority.

Don't go changing your play just on this illustration -- that is all it is.
But do go and study up on blind defense and flop play.

Best of luck,
VS

Wait what? Are you suggesting only defending 88+, ATs+, AJo+ in BB? Anything that can make us more than -100bb/100 can be defended from the BB.

Your turn cbet seems kinda high, how much do you cbet river?

Originally posted by JCSeerup
Your turn cbet seems kinda high, how much do you cbet river?

added river cbet stat:

why turn cbet you say is high? If I remember well, turn cbet should be about 60 and so river.
River cbet is high as we see - 67.7 %. So too many bluffs?:) it looks like I do not make that many when I play earlier I had leak of cbeting flop and not barreling turn and river ,so they were bluffing me out a lot.

I'm really not an expert on stats, but from what i've heard 50% cbet is in the higher end, so barrelling a lot seems a bit too aggressive to me. I can't really say how it's working for you, but you might wanna run some filters on it.

Originally posted by JCSeerup
I'm really not an expert on stats, but from what i've heard 50% cbet is in the higher end, so barrelling a lot seems a bit too aggressive to me. I can't really say how it's working for you, but you might wanna run some filters on it.

this is over 20k hands
cbets turn success maybe is too low ? Later really need to filter the hands as you say.

ON the other hand - of turn cbet succes is low, then they should pay off me better when I have good hand. But need to find out, how often do I have this good hand. Maybe not often enough and so then I bluff unsucessfully. No idea.

My poker friend says to work on flop play in general:
- How to play on different textures
- OOP and IP
- Betsizing on different textures.

Originally posted by JCSeerup
I'm really not an expert on stats, but from what i've heard 50% cbet is in the higher end, so barrelling a lot seems a bit too aggressive to me. I can't really say how it's working for you, but you might wanna run some filters on it.

Filtered hands where flop and turn cbets were made and I see profit 19.08 $ over 132 hands.
It is positive. But I am not sure how much winrate should be at this spot. Because still from all actions we have to win more than we lose in the blinds.

132 hands - 381.6 bb
100 hands - x

x = 289 bb per 100 hands

Today decided to check how my river bluffcatches are working:

And we can see its down almost 40$. So might be that I am blufcatching too light.

Hmm, but if I folded on river, while fold is 0 ev, it shows negative winnings.

So I do not understand something now. Those 40 $ lost is the pot sizes lost, but not the river call sizes. On the other hand, when my hand wins, I win not only size which I called, but the whole pot.

So I think - when I win a hand, it should sum the amount of pots.
And when I lose hand, it should sum only the river call size, because I invest river call size to win all the money in the pot.
Then we could see if my river investments are profitable.

Am I wrong here? And if not - how to set such filter?

There is a stat called river call efficiency (Call R Eff)
This might help sort out your problem.
Its definition is amt_r_call_won / amt_r_call
Another stat that might help sort this out is:
WSD % After Call R

Ideally Call R Eff should be > 1 but not too much greater.
If it is too much greater, then you are missing spots where a raise would have been better.

This stat does not address the common leak where one is in pos and checks back the river losing to a low pair when taking a stab would surely have won.
eg: you hold K♠:4♠: and the board is A♠:Q♠:3♦:7♦:2♣:
You bet the flop and get called, the turn goes check check.
The river goes check check and you lose to a pair of 5s.

Bluffcatching is a black art -- first you need to have decent showdown value, then you need to assess whether villain is bluffing or value betting.
In the first place, it's a bluff catch, in the second, it is a crying call -- you have too much equity to fold, but you don't have much hope of actually winning. Then it is a matter of assessing your equity vs the amount required to call.

Personally, I'm rubbish on both counts

Best of luck,
VS