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NL10 - AdKd - Good fold?

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stompy91
Joined: 09.04.2012

Villain ( €31.67 EUR ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 1.9, Hands: 225,
I had also notice he only stabs Turn Vs missed Cbet 38% out of 8 hands which is very passive in my opinion. I know that is not the exact thing i'm looking for but it helped me make my mind up.

Flop : Standard c-bet

Turn : Strange to c/r the 8 so i'm thinking it's a range of : 88, 5X, 67, AA and maybe some flush draws but not many as he is quite passive.

River : He bets Huge here and i'm pretty sure its trips or better, probably a FH.

I'm interested to see your opinions though!

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $31.67 (316.7 bb)
BB: $4.83 (48.3 bb)
MP: $10.10 (101 bb)
Hero (CO): $21.47 (214.7 bb)
BTN: $10.69 (106.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) 5 K 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.70) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.10, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $1.90

River: ($7.70) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $6.90, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$7.70 pot ($0.51 rake)
Final Board: 5 K 5 8 4
SB mucked and won $7.19 ($3.39 net)
Hero mucked A K and lost (-$3.80 net)


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21 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think you can fold already OTT. Villain would have 3bet KK+ and probably AK pre. He has 5x and 88 in his range. You said he is pretty passive so when he starts raisin, you can fold. You can apply Baluga Theorem here.


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stompy91
Joined: 09.04.2012

Baluga Theorem ?
I'll have to google that haha ?(


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Originally posted by stompy91
Baluga Theorem ?
I'll have to google that haha ?(

When you get raised on the turn, you should consider folding if you do not hold at least top 2 pair.


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I like fold vs reg. I don't see myself folding vs spewier players though I think they have enough worse Kx in their flatting range, they could take that line with additional 24 combos of Kx, I see a lot of weaker players massively overplaying their top pairs and on that board there really isn't many combos that beat us. (1)55, (2)88, (1)A5s.(1)76s


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The info that villain is passive is vital. When a passive villain starts betting and raising - you are done if not holding nuts.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

The main point here, for me, was ur cbet.
I would have made it way smaller on this board... doesnt hit many hands, and betting hard like u did just the strongest ones ll continue.
On the turn u can already fold. Even more when u showed a lot of strengh.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

And it is nasty that you are both so deep.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
And it is nasty that you are both so deep.

For me, its when the true poker really happens.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

ok, but it is notso good for our hand. We cannot play for stacks.


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MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

Against a non-passive opponent a turn call is OK because it's such a thin value range, but if villain is passive then turn should be a fold. He's not usually doing that with KQ.


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Tough spot. But if you were willing to call the raise on the turn, you must have thought you were ahead. Don't really see the 4♥: changing anything. So, you should have folded on the turn, or you should have called the river.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by MrPink578
Tough spot. But if you were willing to call the raise on the turn, you must have thought you were ahead. Don't really see the 4♥: changing anything. So, you should have folded on the turn, or you should have called the river.

+1 friend. Logical and effective thinking.
The 4h doesnt improves villain's range at all. Still, the bet on the river makes more likely he really has a hand that have us beat.

In this particular hand its just a fold ott bc he looks way passive overall.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I would bet/fold this on the turn by default and this villain does not look like someone against whom I would change my default play, since he not seems very aggressive. The most probable hand he has there, imo, is 88, but something like A5 is also possible. I don't fully agree that if we call the turn, we have to call this river because sometimes players are able to check/raise draws on the turn, but aren't able to shove river unimproved. Anyway, I don't think this villain has a draw on the turn.


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stompy91
Joined: 09.04.2012

I was planning on calling a river bet but the sizing looks very value heavy to me.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Alleen, do u think its reasonable calling an OR from CO w 67 on SB?


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inceptioner
Joined: 23.05.2012

Originally posted by la55i
He has 5x and 88 in his range.

I agree with everything you say except this one. 88 ofc, but what 5x hands would you flat from SB?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

A 30/19 guy can have some 5x - A5, 56, 54, 75. But this is not that much combos.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
A 30/19 guy can have some 5x - A5, 56, 54, 75. But this is not that much combos.

Even more when u add that its just the suited version of these, IF they have it on range.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by Afulibador
Alleen, do u think its reasonable calling an OR from CO w 67 on SB?

I think usually not, except a CO opens small, like 2bb-2,5bb and is a recreational player who doesn't fold to 3bets. Otherwise 76s is a default bluff 3bet for me.


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