AA vs raise OTF

Preflop is fine.
OTF your raise is good. When villain shoves I would call.

This is NL2 and villain is a fish. Yes he might sometimes have JJ,TT,55,JT here but I think he can shove with so many worse hands that it is better to call. He could shove draws,AJ,QQ,KK. And if he has sets or 2 pair we still have 2 outs and nut backdoor flush draw. And backdoor straight draw ♦

I will disagree here.
MP2 17.05% 17.05% 0.00% AhAc
MP3 82.95% 82.95% 0.00% JJ-TT, 55, JTs

We cannot call.
The only draw is KQ.
MP2 31.35% 31.35% 0.00% AhAc
MP3 68.65% 68.65% 0.00% JJ-TT, 55, KQs, JTs

Agreed, he's usually very strong here, I like the raise / fold

We need 42% to call this one. I think your ranges are way too tight when we take into consideration that this is NL2 and villain is a fish. They can do so much stupid moves. They could shove with Kh9h just because FD and gutshot. I didn't add that hand into my range but here is my proposal:

MP2 55.36% 55.24% 0.12% AhAc
MP3 44.64% 44.52% 0.12% JJ-TT, 55, AKs, AJs, KQs, JTs, AcQc, KhJh, Qh9h, Qc9c, 9h8h, 8h7h, AJo, KQo, JTo

Yours was too tight, mine might be too wide. Villain probably has somewhere in the middle. In your range there is only value hands and the absolute best draw there can be. I don't expect fish to think like that. Calling can't be terribly wrong.

What AK..Ax when you hold the Ah? Do not make me laugh.
Qx - impossible here...
We do not have 42%!

I admit that he might be very strong here. Not 4betting pre and limp shoving flop could mean he is capped to JJ,TT but this is not always the case. With passive fish most likely yes. But I have seen aggro fish do very stupid moves. I wouldn't give him too much credit.

AK just because it is AK and it has 2 overs and a gutshot ♦ Who knows.. BTW neither of us put QQ,KK in there? Don't you think those are possible?

Originally posted by la55i
I admit that he might be very strong here. Not 4betting pre and limp shoving flop could mean he is capped to JJ,TT but this is not always the case. With passive fish most likely yes. But I have seen aggro fish do very stupid moves. I wouldn't give him too much credit.

The board hits him better. We do not have odds.

Originally posted by la55i
AK just because it is AK and it has 2 overs and a gutshot ♦ Who knows.. BTW neither of us put QQ,KK in there? Don't you think those are possible?

Ax....impossible.
KK, QQ may be 4B here... not that much changes.

Okayyyyy.. Good discussion. I'm going to sleep now. Let's continue tomorrow

Nothing to discuss more... Good night.

No way that I would fold this hand.
QQ-TT, 55, AKs, KQs, JTs: against this we have 51%. Imo they don't even do this with strong hands. Well 2 pairs can be, but not sets. It is too much overbet for that. Fishes don't want you to fold when they have a hand.

I think the opposite, push is a set, not a draw or overpair.
Remember that this is a 3b pot.

Fish migh call 3bets wide. AKs is maybe a bit far fetched but maybe he thinks his overcards are good and hit quite often OTT or OTR, he doesn't know how to play them and he thinks we raise only because he limps. Then he shoves and tries to get us to fold. AKs is only 2 combos so counting it in or out shouldn't affect our equity much. QQ,KK very much possible imo. Draws he might shove because he doesn't know how to play them properly postflop.

Maybe we can flip a coin and decide here. I don't know.

I think you are trying to make it up.
3 bet pot, much more set possible then draws that will push this way.

KK-TT,55,KQs,JTs

Your previous range with QQ,KK added. 57% equity against that range = enough.
If we believe he would always 4bet KK and add only QQ we have 47% = enough.
If we think he would 4bet QQ also but he has AJ in his range and would go crazy with TPTK we have 48.5% = enough.

In reality villain has QQ,KK here and might sometimes go crazy with AJ. AKs is far fetched but still possible because hey it is AK.. In addition to KQs he can have 89s. I can put villain on a range that we have over 60% against and is still somewhat realistic.

Even if villain shoves only sets and KK we have equity to call.

Do read what I wrote? We are guessing if he is going crazy and cannot be sure he is pushing all those hands you are listing.
All I know is that a push in 3b pot is not a draw and is for value.

Villain is a fish who minraises from MP and limp shoves OTF. Two years back I used to shove my monsterdraws, which would have included 8h9s. And it really doesn't matter anymore if villain is going to shove draws or not. As I pointed out it is enough if he shoves sets,2pair,QQ,KK -> we have a call. And I think that he will shove overpairs for sure.

It is useless to argue more... as we are not getting anywhere.
Everyone has his arguments and is right for himself.