I think my river overbet was a mistake

Originally posted by Dr1fter808
After his check/back on turn, I think my overbet on river is really bad because I don't think it gets called at all given action. Like, he has a ton of Ax and Kx that misses this board. However, when he raises on river, I am very confused.

33? is what I went through my mind.

Thoughts?

A better T is also possible.
Given the action overpairs are also possible, but not so likely.

Since overbets are frequently bluffs, he may just be trying to chase out all the bluffs in your range.
In only 47 hands I don't lend a lot of weight to the aggression stats.

Generally if I'm playing bet/fold or bet/call OTR, I do it with half pot max.

Also, the overbet OTR may have been a mistake, but not leading the turn may have been one also.

I'd love to hear what the experts think on this hand

Im not a fan of overbets as you know, i just think you give your self a bad price on bluffs and increase your fold equity on value hands. One other thing is the bigger you go the more you remove villains bluffs and when it comes to over bets does villain still have any bluffs ?. It's possible but they have to be pretty click happy.

I think this is exactly spot to use overbets. Ton of busted draws and our value range is mainly Tx which beats most of villain range. If villain doesnt find calls then our bluffs would work really well. Issue is when villain raise he says that he has at least most Tx beat and I would assume bluffs are very rare versus overbet here?

Originally posted by ghaleon
I think this is exactly spot to use overbets. Ton of busted draws and our value range is mainly Tx which beats most of villain range. If villain doesnt find calls then our bluffs would work really well. Issue is when villain raise he says that he has at least most Tx beat and I would assume bluffs are very rare versus overbet here?

That is precisely why I used the overbet here. My default sizing is 142% pot but here I even made micro adjustments to make it a little bigger because I'm greedy. As for his river raise, yes, yes, yes, he rarely if ever has us not beat here.

Maybe I was on the right track, because overpairs check/back turn and will hero call river, or should.

Well I think it depends on overpair. Like JJ with spade make pretty bad bluff catch hand. KK without spade though would be very good call. Not sure about 9x. Possibly some of these could make sensible bluff raises theory wise? Also point being MP probably doesnt have that many 9x in first place so it would be pretty rare combo to start with. Wouldnt surprise me if gto wise villain should call some A high unblocking busted draws or some 55 for same reason.

As for villain value range 33 is perhaps most likely but of course theory wise villain should imo occasionally check turn with nuts like T9s. 99, 22 or AT type hands I would assume to bet turn for either unblocking Tx or looking for protection.

Originally posted by ghaleon
Well I think it depends on overpair. Like JJ with spade make pretty bad bluff catch hand. KK without spade though would be very good call. Not sure about 9x. Possibly some of these could make sensible bluff raises theory wise? Also point being MP probably doesnt have that many 9x in first place so it would be pretty rare combo to start with. Wouldnt surprise me if gto wise villain should call some A high unblocking busted draws or some 55 for same reason.

As for villain value range 33 is perhaps most likely but of course theory wise villain should imo occasionally check turn with nuts like T9s. 99, 22 or AT type hands I would assume to bet turn for either unblocking Tx or looking for protection.

That's what the villain had. And I guess his check/back on turn(a small percentage of time) worked to set a trap against a range like my own. In theory, TB getting paid is unlikely on this board, it also allows to trap your opponents should they improve on later street, and it also opens up the opponent's bluffs.

I was taken by surprise because Tx is a decent part of BB's range, imo.