[Closed] NL400 FR 3rd barrel with busted Flushdraw

Hi,

according to stats villain is very reasonable.
Preflop, Flop and Turn is fine.
As the 3 on river is a good card for him -> bad card for you,
I'd either c/f or pot-overpot(1,5x) to push him from KQ, AQ.
You only represent 77, KK and (AA, unlikely because he has an Ace) on river, because 33 has become more unlikely.

Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin

Originally posted by AninIII
Hi,

according to stats villain is very reasonable.
Preflop, Flop and Turn is fine.
As the 3 on river is a good card for him -> bad card for you,
I'd either c/f or pot-overpot(1,5x) to push him from KQ, AQ.
You only represent 77, KK and (AA, unlikely because he has an Ace) on river, because 33 has become more unlikely.

Let's see what the judges think.

Best regards,
Anin

i like your river line a lot.

That said, I had a very similar hand asked of me by a friend. He was in the position of villain here, and was faced with a 1.5? psb shove on the river with AQ by a very strong player given similar action (he was OOP though). He asked if it was ever a c/fold and I mentioned how he's at the absolute top of his range, so if he c/f here he will get exploited too much. So I think villain might also level himself into a call with this reasoning, but assuming you're a good player and balance enough with your overpairs and sets by overbetting, the line is going to be fine.

u should assume his mp pf range here thats the main thing and ask yourself these questions while playing the hand on T:

1, how much of his range are drawing hands? --> he s gonna call on T with those coz T brings more coordination, but with most possibly b/f; also depends on your knowledge abt how scared he could be in deeper plays, does he cbeh sometimes here? ..many of those u dominate so it can be possibly good for u to build up the pot in this scenario for big implieds on R

2, how much of his range are underpairs which can fold on T?

3, how much of his range are Qx which are not going to fold

commonsense handcombos tells u he is not going to fold much to your T bet, he might fold more to c/r tho. Ofc this is just foldeq, u might be interested in some implieds or playability on R once sometimes called in that spot. ofc u should believe in your strengths as a poker plr to recognize his ranges then there and know non-well bluffable cards on R.

to make it short:

i understand u bet the R, coz on T u felt exactly what i summed up above, simply that he s not going to fold to your 2 barell much. but this R is obv 1 of the worst ever for directbet bluffing once u barelled T. If u ever wanted to bluff any range that might fold to a bet, u should strongly contemplate c/shoving as well and pick more dead money by all missed draws and marginal made hands that turned to bluff, which are there plenty on his side still.

overall: many options to play the hand depending on how u know the opponent, tho u must ofc play vs ranges. There was no way to get him of this concrete hand unless he thinvbets somewhere and levels himself then.

Btw: dont post results for next hands, thx.

hm. So I should barrel huge on a non pair river but check/shove this particular one? I was kind of feeling he was a little on the scared side, not sure if he would bet the river though since I expect most QX hands including AQ to checkbehind.

No, i am definitely not telling what u should/should not do. I know u re prolly a bit crazily multitabling and taking anything like a rule is just totally destructional. Just make notes on plrs and review questions i have written in the first comment. Then it starts making much more sense. I am not surprised at all u went for 3x b line here, coz i used to be doing the same when multitabling a ton coz there is just ntg creative u can come up with at the time u have ton of action on every other table..

The thing here is that his mp pf range doesnt include many, if any weaker Qx hands than QK, some QJs maybe, but thats just 3combos here. Its clear u re not going to have him layed those by betting 3x esp given how everyhing missed on R.

Therefore betting on R again was clearly -ev. Ofc fe: b, and c/r T brings u to tought decisions once u are called, esp when not having time at all to think abt his ranges during the hand. Also by: b, b, and c/r u want to just fold out some nonpairdraws or 7x, 5x combodraws which turned to bluff, u collect dead money and bluff. U dont want to bluff him of AQ, that would be just downright insane to hope for. Ofc he can thinvbet sometimes and then level himself but u can never count on that. Overall, u just must know your opponent and know when his betting range can be weaker for u to conduct an effective bluff. - vs a tight plr tho in this spot 3x bet is just not effective at all. It would be deffo more effective vs a looser plr who can float u 2 x here wider.

Once u 2barelled vs this plr tho, u should have only continued on sth which brings even more coordination to the board on R, like str8 cards, and possibly sth like K, on A on R u can likely c/c for bluffcatch.

Hm I think against this player betting the turn as well as check/raising are probably -EV.
He's pretty tight - there are very few hands that now have a FD which he could call preflop.
He's probably not betting midpairs (if he even calls with them on the flop) and imo he calls a c/r with KQ and AQ.

Btw assuming he was looser: What can we credibly represent with a c/r? Would we c/r KK and AA for value? AQ/KQ?

Originally posted by Bierbaer
Hm I think against this player betting the turn as well as check/raising are probably -EV.
He's pretty tight - there are very few hands that now have a FD which he could call preflop.
He's probably not betting midpairs (if he even calls with them on the flop) and imo he calls a c/r with KQ and AQ.

Btw assuming he was looser: What can we credibly represent with a c/r? Would we c/r KK and AA for value? AQ/KQ?

i dont agree with the 1st sentence at all. Its not just the direct potequity and foldequity on T we should take into consideration. But also potential feq on R (fe once c/r T) which can be huuge. This is FR, ppl are capable (and should be) of folding tp quite freely once there is too much heat.

i also think, even though he is pretty tight, he is not a nit, he is deffo reasonable from hijack and deffo has pretty much all scs of fd from 89 and some gappers, also hands like 76, 65, sometimes 54, sometimes low pairs that floated like 44, 66 that have decent equity on T now. Many of these hands he ll fold to c/r on T and/or all of them unimproved to further bet on R

i see AQ folding to most of R cards too when facing so much heat. but ofc not this one. But obv we have to take overall range, but saying both b and c/r are -ev is just rly bad to me. So u wanna c/f on T with deeper stacks even? our implieds are great and we must play on. c/c might be an option vs some fancy plrs but not vs him coz we are just totally destroying all our implieds on R. He is alw gonna cbeh anything marginal and fold to donk.

@looser plr: yea, totally different situation, c/r on T such board is very good for maxvalue extraction, also for balancing draws/monsters with thinvalue. AQ and better are still crushing his b/c range, KQ is a bit marginal imo.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense, thanks!