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[Closed] Q9s flop decision

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taavi1337
Joined: 29.05.2009

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$1/$2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q:c, 9:c.
Hero raises, MP3 3-Bets, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.5 SB) 5:s, 3:h, J:c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: 3.75 BB.

Villain is a good TAG, 27/21/1.9/43, 3-bet 13.7, 2,1k hands

I don't like to continue here, but the equilator says I have to:

Board: 5s3hJc
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 19,779% 19,779% 0,000% 80,221% Qc9c
Player 2: 80,221% 80,221% 0,000% 19,779% 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+

I only need 1:5.5 and I get 1:8.5. Bad fold?


1 reply
Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

Dont mix equity with outs! Equity will tell you how often your hand will be best at SD therefore you assume you will go for calldown. But you also have to be aware that there will be further bets on turn and river so your equity actually has to be higher than 1:5,5. There are matematics(which would take long to explain :) ) but in a 3bet pot you need 28% to continue on the flop and 22% on turn.

In your case, you are obviously not going to SD ui therefore equity is meaningless and you should continue playing on your outs. For 1:8,5 with 2 decent backdoors and Q,9 outs I cannot ever fold even though his range is fairly strong.


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